Publikationen des DIW Berlin

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DIW Economic Bulletin

1 / 2012 German Industry - a Tower of Strength? Dorothea Lucke S. 15-23

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Abstract:

By the summer of 2011, Germany industry was back at levels last achieved before the economic crisis, thanks to continuous growth in production since early 2009. The recovery was driven by strong domestic and foreign demand for German capital and intermediate goods. However, the Ifo Business Climate Index, which has contracted since July 2011, and fewer orders suggest that industrial production will decline by the end of 2011. The duration and intensity of the slowdown will depend not least on how quickly policy-makers take convincing measures to resolve the debt crisis in the eurozone and thus allay widespread uncertainty among investors and consumers.

JEL-Classification:

E23, E37

Keywords:

Forecasts, business cycles, industrial production