A Bounding Approach to Age–Period–Cohort Analysis: A Demonstration Using Public Crime Concerns in Germany

Abstract

In this paper, we present an application of a bounding approach to age–period–cohort (APC) analysis, recently developed by Fosse and Winship (2019), offering a transparent and assumption-aware alternative to commonly used identification strategies. Specifically, we apply the method to evaluate long-term trends in public concern about crime in Germany, addressing whether observed changes reflect genuine period effects.