Alternde Bevölkerung und Gesundheitsausgaben - Eine theoretische Analyse demographischer Ausgabeneffekte auf den Beitragssatz der GKV

Abstract

Relevant publications discuss the relation between the demographic process and per-capita health care expenditures (HCE) in a controversial manner. This concerns theory as well as the results of empirical research. Therefore, this paper discusses the influence of an ageing population on HCE in a theoretical framework. It breaks down HCE into three components: time-to-death, morbidity and age structure. The components are analysed theoretically and the results are contrasted with the results of empirical surveys. The paper closes with a discussion whether to include costs of dying and changing morbidity explicitly into forecasting future HCE or not.