Policy Effects on Behaviour: Persuasion Effects in Electoral Campaigns – A Comparative Analysis of Household Panel Data

Abstract

This study looks at the campaign effects of national elections, using household panel surveys from Germany, Great Britain and Switzerland. As household panels collect the party preferences of the same individuals on an annual basis, we are able to study individual dynamics over the electoral cycle. This makes it easier to distinguish between activation and persuasion effects than studying electoral panels conducted during campaigns. Using random effects models, we find strong evidence for the activation and persuasion effects of campaigns. Furthermore, we find that citizens with a high level of political awareness are least likely to be (de)activated and persuaded, but that, only in Great Britain, political awareness interacts significantly with the electoral cycle.