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Divisive Jobs: Three Facets of Risk, Precarity and Redistribution

Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science

Raluca L. Pahontu

In: Political Science Research and Methods 10 (2022), 3, 507-523

Abstract

A central challenge in understanding public opinion shifts is identifying whose opinions change. Political economy models typically try to uncover this by exploring voters’ economic vulnerability, in particular the relationship between labour market risk and redistribution preferences. Predominantly, however, such work imputes risk from group-level characteristics and is static in nature. This makes interpretations of welfare state support and its relationship to risk unreliable. I propose therefore an individual level, dynamic account of risk inferred from employment characteristics – perceived job security, job tenure and contract type. These, importantly, account for the possibility that one’s experience of risk may change across time. I then show how changes in workers’ risk determine changes in their spending demand. I find support for these propositions using Swiss panel data and modelling unobserved individual heterogeneity. Emphasizing dynamic preferences and risk, this paper’s findings enhance understanding of the political economy of welfare state support.

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