Fathers, Families, and the Future: A Regression Discontinuity Study of Germany’s Daddy Quota and Its Effects on Gender Roles and Caregiving (Bachelor Thesis)

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of Germany’s 2007 parental leave reform (Elterngeld), which introduced two months of non-transferable leave for fathers. Using a sharp regression discontinuity design (RDD) with longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), the analysis compares families with children born just before and after the policy’s implementation. The reform helped mothers return to work sooner, increasing their employment likelihood by 20.1%, and shifted their time allocation from childcare to paid work. However, fathers did not significantly increase their time spent on caregiving. Over time, the policy’s effects weakened, though fathers became slightly more involved in their children’s education, especially in families with multiple children. Notably, the policy correlated with reduced subsequent fertility, suggesting that parents may have reassessed family fertility plans after experiencing childcare demands. While the reform narrowed gender gaps temporarily, its impacts faded. Deeper changes in workplace culture and social norms are needed to achieve lasting gender equality in caregiving. These findings contribute to global family policy design, showing that paternal leave quotas alone cannot resolve gender inequities without broader societal and cultural support.