Vorträge des DIW Berlin

The Real-Time Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts

Information Discovery and Trend Following in Agricultural Futures Markets

We develop a structural VAR model to analyze the relationship between financial speculation, agricultural futures prices, and other asset prices. We consider two important types of speculators and test if they affect futures prices and through which channels. Moreover, we study their trading strategies. We find that shocks to net long positions of index investors do not affect futures prices,...

Die wirtschaftlichen Chancen einer klugen Energiewende

Energiewende and German Climate Policy

About the Categorization of Latent Variables in Hybrid Choice Models

DIW-Herbstgrundlinien 2015

Die wirtschaftlichen Chancen einer klugen Energiewende

The Impact of Education on Personality: Evidence from a German High School Reform

The Top Tail of the Wealth Distribution in Germany and France

Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?

The Predictive Content of Asset Price Bubbles for Macro Forecasts

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble emergences and collapses. Building on simulations, the paper shows that the detection capabilities of all...

Don't Stop Me Now: The Impact of Credit Market Segmentation on Firms' Financing Constraints

Regulation and Investment Incentives in Electricity Distribution

How Does Education Improve Cognitive Skills? Instructional Time versus Timing of Instruction

This paper investigates two mechanisms through which education may affect cognitive skills in adolescence: the role of instructional quantity and the timing ofinstruction with respect to age. To identify causal effects, I exploit a school reform carried out at the state level in Germany as a quasi-natural experiment: between 2001 and 2007, the academic-track high school (Gymnasium) was reduced by...

Job Search Expectations

An Analysis of Allowance Banking in the EU ETS

Leibniz Science 2.0: Sharing Research Data in Academia

Deindustrialization and the Polarization of Household Incomes: The Example of Urban Agglomerations in Germany

The tertiarization, or perhaps more accurately, the deindustrialization of the economy has left deep scars on cities. It is evident not only in the industrial wastelands and empty factory buildings scattered throughout the urban landscape, but also in the incomeand social structures of cities. Industrialization, collective wage setting and the welfare state led to a stark reduction in income...

The Effect of Peer Observation on Consumption Choices: Experimental Evidence

Weather Shocks and Education in Mongolia