puje (Copyright)  Diagramm Statistik Aufschwung
Press Release, 25 Jun 2015

GDP is set to grow by 1.8 percent this year and 1.9 percent next year – the global economy is slowly picking up steam, and the euro area is showing solid growth performance – possible risks such as Greece leaving the euro area are creating a strain on the economy The German economy is... more

Dewing (Copyright)  Rolltreppe Fahrtreppe Rolltreppen
Interview, 25 Jun 2015

Dr. Fichtner, will the German economy perform as well in the second half of 2015 as it did in the first half of the year? We assume that the German economy will lose some of its momentum. One-off effects such as plummeting oil prices played a major role in the strong gains made during the winter... more

Rudolf  Schmidt (Copyright)  Geld Cash Finanzen
Press Release, 19 Jun 2015

DIW Berlin’s researchers warn: employment does not necessarily prevent poverty—11.5 million people in Germany are at risk of poverty—one in five in eastern Germany is living below the poverty risk threshold  Real disposable household incomes in Germany rose by an average of... more

martini (Copyright)  Lohnsteuerkarte Farbbild Farbfoto
Interview, 19 Jun 2015

Dr. Grabka, you have analyzed income inequality in Germany. Does your research show that the gap between rich and poor has widened even further?If we look at the development of income inequality since 2000, it is clear that the gap between the richer and the poorer income groups has widened further.... more

Dieter Beselt (Copyright)  Windenergie Windkraft Windrad
Report, 10 Jun 2015

by Nils May, Karsten Neuhoff, Frieder Borggrefe Up until now, wind turbines have been designed to generate electricity at the lowest possible total cost, independent of this electricity’s market value. With an increasing penetration of wind power in the system, the market value of electricity... more

List of News
by Ferdinand Fichtner, Guido Baldi, Franziska Bremus, Karl Brenke, Christian Dreger, Hella Engerer, Christoph Große Steffen, Simon Junker, Claus Michelsen, Katharina Pijnenburg, Maximilian Podstawski, Malte Rieth, Kristina van Deuverden, in DIW Economic Bulletin

The German economy is continuing on an upward trend. Due to surprisingly weak production at the start of this year, GDP is likely to increase by 1.8 percent and is therefore growing somewhat slower this year than previously predicted. Growth of 1.9 percent is still expected for the coming year. After an unexpectedly weak first quarter, the global economy is expected to regain momentum as the year progresses. While growth in the emerging economies increased only slowly, both cyclically and structurally, recovery will primarily be driven by positive consumer spending in industrialized countries. With low inflation and an improving labor market situation in those countries, household income and purchasing power are likely to increase. The global economy’s average annual growth rate is predicted to reach 3.5 percent in 2015 and 4.0 percent in 2016. Inflation is expected to remain at two percent this year and increase to three percent next year. Germany’s strong domestic economy is driving growth. Most recently, additional social benefits and, above all, low inflation temporarily boosted real incomes; nevertheless, consumer spending will increase substantially going forward due to favorable developments in the labor market. Companies are moderately expanding their investment in equipment; however, uncertainties related to the crisis in the euro area, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about economic development in important emerging countries have a dampening effect. Exports are benefiting from the global economic recovery and temporarily also from the depreciation of the euro; overall, the stimulus from net foreign trade is likely to be modest.

by Jan Goebel, Markus M. Grabka, Carsten Schröder, in DIW Economic Bulletin

According to calculations based on the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study, average disposable household income rose by five percent in real terms between 2000 and 2012. Only the highest earners have benefited from this development. While real income in the top ten percent rose by more than 15 percent, the earnings of the middle income groups stagnated, and even fell in the lower income groups. As a result, the inequality of disposable household income in Germany climbed sharply up until 2005 and has remained at the same high level ever since. At the same time, the risk of poverty in Germany increased significantly between 2000 and 2009, and is currently at approximately 14 percent. The risk of poverty has risen significantly for young singles (up to the age of 35) in particular. Their at-risk-of-poverty rate increased by 12 percentage points since 2000 to just under 40 percent in 2012. Even being in gainful employment does not necessarily protect them from poverty: in particular, young adults (aged 25 to 35) who are just starting out in their careers are increasingly at risk of poverty.

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