Discussion Papers

About the Discussion Papers

The researchers at DIW Berlin usually publish their research results in scientific journals. However, this process can take many months, depending on the circumstances. To help bridge this gap, DIW Berlin began publishing Discussion Papers in 1989. The Discussion Papers offer a preview of the latest, not-yet-published research results, and allow current research to make its way into current debate more quickly.

Notes for authors

For publication in the series of DIW discussion papers the following may be submitted: Papers by DIW employees, DIW research professors and directors, DIW research affiliates and guest scientists who have spent at least one week at DIW Berlin and thank DIW Berlin in a footnote.    
Papers submitted will be sent in electronic form to the head of the relevant department at DIW Berlin. It is checked by an internal referee procedure whether or not the paper is likely to be published in a refereed journal. A decision on publication will then be made on the basis of a referee report. Should a paper have already been accepted for a publication by a refereed SSCI magazine or have received an invitation to a re-submission in a first-class journal, it will appear immediately without a referee procedure.

1958 results, from 1
Diskussionspapiere 1953 / 2021

Unconventional Fiscal Policy in HANK

In HANK, we show that fiscal policy is an appropriate macroeconomic stabilization tool at the ZLB. Fiscal policy achieves the same macroeconomic aggregates and the same welfare as hypothetically unconstrained monetary policy by replicating its transmission mechanism. Consumption taxes and labor taxes replicate the effects of monetary policy through the intertemporal substitution channel. Debt-financed ...

2021| Hannah Seidl, Fabian Seyrich
Diskussionspapiere 1952 / 2021

Optimism Gone Bad? The Persistent Effects of Traumatic Experiences on Investment Decisions

Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996- 2000 provide an optimal base to address this question, as it is known for its emotional character and is reputedly “the last time Germans invested in stocks.” Using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) household survey data, I show that ...

2021| Chi Hyun Kim
Diskussionspapiere 1951 / 2021

Cracking under Pressure? Gender Role Attitudes toward Maternal Employment in Times of a Pandemic

This paper studies the effects of Covid-19 related daycare and school closures on gender role attitudes toward maternal employment in Germany. We compare women and men with dependent children to those without children one year after the outbreak of the pandemic. Using data on gender role attitudes from 2008 through 2021, we find that fathers’ egalitarian attitudes toward maternal employment dropped ...

2021| Natalia Danzer, Mathias Huebener, Astrid Pape, C. Katharina Spieß, Nico A. Siegel, Gert G. Wagner
Diskussionspapiere 1950 / 2021

The Effect of Self-Control and Financial Literacy on Impulse Borrowing: Experimental Evidence

This paper examines the effect of reduced self-control on impulsive borrowing in a laboratory experiment. We manipulate self-control using an ego depletion task and show that it is effective. Following the ego depletion task, participants can anonymously buy hot drinks on credit. We find no significant average effects, but find that treated individuals that have low financial literacy are more likely ...

2021| Antonia Grohmann, Jana Hamdan
Diskussionspapiere 1949 / 2021

Comparison of Local Projection Estimators for Proxy Vector Autoregressions

Different local projection (LP) estimators for structural impulse responses of proxy vector autoregressions are reviewed and compared algebraically and with respect to their small sample suitability for inference. Conditions for numerical equivalence and similarities of some estimators are provided. A new LP type estimator is also proposed which is very easy to compute. Two generalized least squares ...

2021| Martin Bruns, Helmut Lütkepohl
Diskussionspapiere 1948 / 2021

Climate Neutral Production, Free Allocation of Allowances under Emissions Trading Systems, and the WTO: How to Secure Compatibility with the ASCM

To reach climate neutrality, carbon emissions from the production of basic materials need to be significantly reduced. For governments’ support measures to be consistent with their World Trade Organization obligations, they need to be compatible with the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (ASCM). This paper analyzes the ASCM consistency of three selected support schemes, namely: ...

2021| Roland Ismer, Harro van Asselt, Jennifer Haverkamp, Michael Mehling, Karsten Neuhoff, Alice Pirlot
Diskussionspapiere 1947 / 2021

Effectiveness, Spillovers, and Well-Being Effects of Driving Restriction Policies

We study the effectiveness, spillovers, and well-being effects of low emission zones in Germany, an emission-intensity-based driving restriction rapidly growing in popularity. Using regression discontinuity and group-time difference-in-differences designs, we show that previous estimates of the policy’s impact on traffic-related air pollution significantly underestimate its effectiveness. We provide ...

2021| Luis Sarmiento, Nicole Wägner, Aleksandar Zaklan
Diskussionspapiere 1946 / 2021

The Impact of Selection into the Labor Force on the Gender Wage Gap

We study the impact of selection bias on estimates of the gender pay gap, focusing on whether the gender pay gap has fallen since 1981. Previous research has found divergent results across techniques, identification strategies, data sets, and time periods. Using Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics data and a number of different identification strategies, we find robust evidence that, after controlling ...

2021| Francine D. Blau, Lawrence M. Kahn, Nikolai Boboshko, Matthew Comey
Diskussionspapiere 1945 / 2021

Communications on Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss with Local Populations: Exploring Best-practices and Postcolonial Moments in Eight Case Studies from across the Globe

Climate change and biodiversity loss trigger policies worldwide, many of which target or impact local communities. Although research, international development, and policy implementation (and, thus, success in fighting both threats) require thoughtful consideration and communication of the underlying concepts, field work encounters a cascade of tangible barriers. Technoscientific representations of ...

2021| Dawud Ansari, Regine Schönenberg, Melissa Abud, Laura Becerra, Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert, Nigel Dudley, Michael Dunlop, Carolina Figueroa, Oscar Guevara, Philipp Hauser, Hannes Hobbie, Mostafa A.R. Hossain, Jean Hugé, Luc Janssens de Bisthoven, Hilde Keunen, Claudia Munera-Roldan, Jan Petzold, Anne-Julie Rochette, Matthew Schmidt, Charlotte Schumann, Sayanti Sengupta, Susanne Stoll-Kleemann, Lorrae van Kerkhoff, Maarten P.M. Vanhove, Carina Wyborn
Diskussionspapiere 1944 / 2021

Temporary VAT Reduction during the Lockdown

This paper evaluates the temporary VAT reduction introduced by the German government over the third and fourth quarter of 2020 as most controversial part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. Critics argue that VAT reductions are ineffective because of limited pass-through of temporary measures to consumer prices and in presence of lockdown measures. Advocates emphasize positive effects on durables and ...

2021| Marius Clemens, Werner Röger
Diskussionspapiere 1943 / 2021

Home Bias in Sovereign Exposure and the Probability of Bank Default - Evidence from EU Stress Test Data

Since the European debt crisis economists and politicians discuss intensively the sovereign-bank nexus. The high activity in sovereign bond issuance required to mitigate the burden of the Covid19 crisis will rather intensify this debate than calm it down. Surprisingly, however, we still have only limited knowledge about the impact of a home bias in sovereign exposure on bank stability. This paper provides ...

2021| Dominik Meyland, Dorothea Schäfer
Diskussionspapiere 1942 / 2021

R&D Internationalization Strategies of the World’s Top Corporate R&D Investors

This paper contributes to the debate on the internationalization of the R&D activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Specifically, we examine the following research questions: (1) What are the determinants of the MNEs’ R&D internationalization level? (2) What types of internationalization strategies—home-base-augmenting (HBA), home-base-exploiting (HBE), technology-seeking (TS), and/or market-seeking ...

2021| Heike Belitz, Anna Lejpras
Diskussionspapiere 1941 / 2021

Employment Responses to Income Effect: Evidence from Pension Reform

For the design of the pension system, it is crucial to disentangle the employment responses related to the substitution effect and the income effect. In this paper, we provide causal evidence regarding the importance of the income effect, which is generally assumed to be small or non-existent. We exploit a pension reform in Germany that raised pension bene- fits related to children. For the identification, ...

2021| Sebastian Becker, Hermann Buslei, Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan
Diskussionspapiere 1940 / 2021

Qualitative versus Quantitative External Information for Proxy Vector Autoregressive Analysis

A major challenge for proxy vector autoregressive analysis is the construction of a suitable external instrument variable or proxy for identifying a shock of interest. Some authors construct sophisticated proxies that account for the dating and size of the shock while other authors consider simpler versions that use only the dating and signs of particular shocks. It is shown that such qualitative (sign-)proxies ...

2021| Lukas Boer, Helmut Lütkepohl
Diskussionspapiere 1939 / 2021

The Value of Data for Prediction Policy Problems: Evidence from Antibiotic Prescribing

Large-scale data show promise to provide efficiency gains through individualized risk predictions in many business and policy settings. Yet, assessments of the degree of data-enabled efficiency improvements remain scarce. We quantify the value of the availability of a variety of data combinations for tackling the policy problem of curbing antibiotic resistance, where the reduction of inefficient antibiotic ...

2021| Shan Huang, Michael Allan Ribers, Hannes Ullrich
Diskussionspapiere 1938 / 2021

The Impact of ECB Corporate Sector Purchases on European Green Bonds

This papers analyzes the effect of the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) and the recent Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on the yields of eligible green bonds, a new but rapidly growing segment of the corporate bond market. We exploit these policy changes using a difference-in-differences strategy, with ineligible corporate green bonds issued in euro, U.S. dollars and Swedish ...

2021| Franziska Bremus, Franziska Schütze, Aleksandar Zaklan
Diskussionspapiere 1937 / 2021

Crowding of International Mutual Funds

We construct a fund-specific measure of crowding using the equity holdings overlap of 17,364 global funds which are actively managed. Funds in the top decile of crowding underperform the passive benchmark by 1.4% per year. The poor performance cannot be attributed to fees and transaction costs alone. When we explore the economics behind crowding, we establish that the diseconomies of crowding are distinct ...

2021| Tanja Artiga Gonzalez, Teodor Dyakov, Justus Inhoffen, Evert Wipplinger
Diskussionspapiere 1936 / 2021

Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States

This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued ...

2021| Franziska Bremus, Thomas Krause, Felix Noth
Diskussionspapiere 1935 / 2021

Carbon Pricing of Basic Materials: Incentives and Risks for the Value Chain and Consumers

For the European Union to realise its ambition of carbon neutrality, emissions from basic material production need to be reduced through low-carbon production processes, material efficiency and substitution, as well as enhanced recycling. Different reform options for the EU ETS are discussed that ensure a consistent carbon price incentive for all these mitigation options, while avoiding the risk of ...

2021| Jan Stede, Stefan Pauliuk, Gilang Hardadi, Karsten Neuhoff
Diskussionspapiere 1934 / 2021

Two Dimensions of Political Trust in Russia

This paper analyzes two dimensions of factors of political trust in Russia. The first dimension is the target dimension (sociotropic vs. egocentric), the second dimension is the time dimension (retrospective vs. perspective). The study is based on the microdata of 2016 Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We find a robust evidence in favor of the ...

2021| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Vyacheslav N. Ovchinnikov, Marina Yu. Malkina, Igor A. Moiseev
1958 results, from 1