Vorträge des DIW Berlin

Forecasting the Fragility of the Banking and Insurance Sector

Linkages between banks and insurance companies are important when forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors. We propose a novel empirical framework that allows us to estimate unobserved linkages in panel data sets that contains observed regressors. We find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts...

Testing Stock Market Convergence: A Non-linear Factor Approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and...

The Carry Trade and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen: Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression Model

Carry trades are speculative activities which involve simultaneously going short a low-rate currency and long a high-rate currency. They are profitable as long as the gains from interest rate differentials are not offset by exchange rate movements. In this paper I investigate the dynamic relationships amongst exchange rate changes, interest rate spreads and carry trades by means of a Markov...

Credit Crunch in Germany, Novelty or Reality?

The availability of credit has been an issue of particular concern in Germany during the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. Contraction of loans, especially business loans, together with an ongoing recession led to a growing fear about an upcoming shortage in lending. This paper analyses existence of a possible "credit crunch" in Germany by employing a disequilibrium model. The downward course of...

Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland

This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model offers a substantial improvement in forecast accuracy of GDP growth rates compared to a benchmark naive...

The German Data Forum - Its Role for Germany and Europe

Frauen in Führungspositionen: wann kommt Frau Ackermann?: Frauen und Männer in Führungspositionen in der Privatwirtschaft in Deutschland

Innovation and Regional Policy in Europe

Sustainable Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Regional Policy Solutions: Keynote Speech

Did Germany Learn Enough from the Scandinavian Financial Crisis Twenty Years Ago

Indikatoren für die Gleichstellung am Arbeitsmarkt am Beispiel Frauen und Männer in Führungspositionen

The Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Business Services Firms in Germany

Empiricism Meets Theory: Is the Boone-Indicator Applicable?

Der Wandel der Erwerbsformen und die Rentenreformen: zunehmendes Risiko zukünftiger Altersarmut?

Explaining the Gender Career Gap: Does Personality Matter?

Zur ökonomischen Situation von älteren Menschen in Deutschland

Women's Noncognitive Skills and Transition to Employment after Childbirth

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of noncognitive traits for the duration of women's career breaks after first childbirth. It thus links the existing literature on the determinants of mothers' return to employment with the very recent literature on the economic role of noncognitive skills. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) and referring to the concepts of...

Does Intermarriage Pay Off?: A Panel Data Analysis

Taking advantage of the panel structure of the data, the impact of intermarriage on labor market productivity as measured by earnings is examined. Contrarily to previous studies which rely on instrumental variable techniques, selection issues are addressed within a fixed effects framework. The model accounts for short and long term effects as well as general differences between those who...

Correlation Neglect in Financial Decision-Making

Women's Noncognitive Skills and Transition to Employment after Childbirth