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Diskussionspapiere 1155 / 2011
Naval counter-piracy measures off Somalia have failed to change the incentives for pirates, raising calls for land-based approaches that may involve replacing piracy as a source of income. This paper evaluates the effects of piracy on the Somali economy to establish which (domestic) groups benefit from ransom monies. Given the paucity of economic data on Somalia, we evaluate province-level market data, ...
2011| Anja Shortland
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Diskussionspapiere 1133 / 2011
We address the pitfalls of averaging by exploiting the longitudinal variation in aid to identify sudden and sharp increases in aid flows. Focusing on specific events, we test if aid accelerations correspond to policies and shocks in the recipient country. For a large sample of 145 recipient countries and 33 donors from 1960- 2007, we find that positive regime changes and wars are significant predictors ...
2011| Tilman Brück, Guo Xu
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Diskussionspapiere 1079 / 2010
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the international naval mission in the Gulf of Aden from 2008-2010, both in terms of its counter-piracy and its counter-terrorism objectives. We draw on arguments developed in the literature of law and economics, detailed statistical analyses and a large number of in depth interviews. Counter-piracy operations are a qualified success: their main effects are ...
2010| Anja Shortland, Marc Vothknecht
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Diskussionspapiere 1050 / 2010
This survey provides an in-depth analysis of existing research on the economic analysis of terrorism and counter-terrorist measures. First the existing evidence on the causes of terrorism is analyzed, then we consider the evidence of the consequences of terrorism and we demonstrate why it is important to regarding of the issue of counter-terrorism policy. Moreover the survey presents the existing knowledge ...
2010| Friedrich Schneider, Tilman Brück, Daniel Meierrieks
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Diskussionspapiere 1049 / 2010
This survey provides an in-depth analysis of existing research on the economic analysis of terrorism and counter-terrorist measures. First the existing evidence on the causes of terrorism is analyzed, then we consider the evidence of the consequences of terrorism and we demonstrate why it is important to regarding of the issue of counter-terrorism policy. Moreover the survey presents the existing knowledge ...
2010| Friedrich Schneider, Tilman Brück, Daniel Meierrieks
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Diskussionspapiere 948 / 2009
The estimation of the costs of conflict is currently receiving a lot of attention in the literature. This paper aims to give a thorough overview of the existing literature, first by addressing the history of case studies that address conflict costs and second by looking at the existing body of cross-country analyses for conflict costs. In addition to the existing cross-country literature, a number ...
2009| Olaf J. de Groot, Tilman Brück, Carlos Bozzoli
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 75 / 2012
Somali piracy is often described as a form of organized crime, with pirates providing their own security. Such an approach fails to distinguish between different actors within modern piracy and leads to policies focusing on deterring pirate recruits. Drawing on Protection Theory developed for the study of Mafias, a detailed analysis of Bloomberg maps of hijacked vessels' routes, field interviews and ...
2012| Anja Shortland, Federico Varese
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 74 / 2012
Ransoms paid to Somali pirates are drifting upward and negotiation times are increasing, yet there is huge variation in bargaining outcomes across shipowners. We use a unique dataset of 179 Somali hijackings, and an underlying theoretical model of the bargaining process based on detailed interviews with ransom negotiators, to analyze the empirical determinants of ransom amounts and negotiation lengths. ...
2012| Olaf J. de Groot, Matthew D. Rablen, Anja Shortland
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 73 / 2012
Terrorism is widely regarded as a public bad vis-à-vis security - a public good - affecting the subjective well-being of citizens. As studies have shown, citizens' risk-perceptions and risk-assessment are affected by large scale terrorist acts. Reported evidence shows that individuals are often willing to trade-off civil liberties for enhanced security particularly as a post-terrorist attack reaction ...
2012| Athina Economou, Christos Kollias
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Economics of Security Working Paper Series 68 / 2012
This paper employs a dataset from The Troubles in Northern Ireland to empirically test the interactions of terrorists operating in domestic conflicts. Specifically, it assesses the theoretical claims that organisations 'match' strategies, choosing their action according to the activity of their rivals. By employing duration analysis, I also test the implications of the qualitative literature specific ...
2012| Neil Ferguson