Beschäftigungsstruktur osteuropäischer EU-Länder vor weiterem Anpassungsprozess an Westeuropa

The employment structures of East European EU countries and entry candidates are still markedly different from market economies with a per capita income as that in West European countries. This is the conclusion of an analysis published in the latest Weekly Report of DIW Berlin 51/2004. Using a data record for market economies at various levels of development, a standard unit for comparison („benchmarks“) was defined for the new East European EU countries, which allows to assess structural changes and can also be used for future simulation. According to this benchmark, there will be a significant rise in relative employment in the construction, trade and financial sectors, as well as in the public sector, social services and other private services until 2015. Even though the employment rate in the financial sector is already high, noticeable increases can partially be expected if the per capita income of the population continues to increase. Furthermore, in all East European EU countries, except Poland, continuous relative job reductions in the processing industries are to be expected, even more so in Slovenia and in the Czech Republic. As far as Poland is concerned, slight job increases in this sector are foreseen. Massive job cuts in the agricultural sector are to be taken into account, especially in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

Unlike East European countries, the progress of EU entry candidates Romania and Bulgaria in adjusting their employment structure to a normal level as defined in the analysis has been relatively slow. This is especially due to a job increase in the agricultural sector in these countries. In these two countries, a decrease in structural differences could only be determined in 1991.

In the analysis, numerous factors influencing the employment structure are being investigated. In this respect, the per capita income has a particularly strong influence. However, this is the first time that significant factors like the dimension of political stability and the dimension of corruption have been taken into account in such a structural analysis. Among others they positively affect employment in the industrial and financial sectors, whereas they have a weakening effect on the relative employment in the agricultural sector.