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When Do Forecasters Disagree? An Assessment of German Growth and Inflation Forecast Dispersion

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970-2004 we analyse the dispersion of growth and inflation forecasts. Forecast dispersion varies over time and is particularly high before and during recessions. There is no clear link between forecast dispersion and the subsequent forecast error. Forecast dispersion is positively correlated with the volatility of macroeconomic variables, but not ...

Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?

The authors assess the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Their econometric analysis indicates that Eurozone governments have manipulated deficit forecasts before elections since the introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact. The left-right position and the institutional design of governments also affect the quality of deficit forecasts.

An Adjustment Process for Nonconvex Production Economies

We prove the existence of a path of market conditions, i.e. combinations of market prices and production quantities, that links any arbitrarily chosen market condition with an equilibrium, in a general equilibrium model with possibly nonconvex production technologies based on Villar [Villar, A., 1994. Equilibrium with nonconvex production technologies. Economic Theory 4, 629-638] and Villar [Villar, ...

Berufliche Segregation im Kontext: über einige Folgen geschlechtstypischer Berufsentscheidungen in Ost- und Westdeutschland

Sichern "Männerberufe" tatsächlich einen besseren Erwerbseinstieg als "Frauenberufe"? In welchem Ausmaß können frauen-bzw. männerdominierte Berufe im Leben junger Menschen erwerbsbiographische Kontinuität stiften? Ausgehend von der Überlegung, dass die Konsequenzen geschlechtstypischer Berufsentscheidungen mit den konkreten wirtschaftsstrukturellen und institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen variieren, ...

Ökonomie(sierung) und Bildung: Plädoyer für ein entspannteres Verhältnis

The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation

In 2002, the Argentinean currency board came to a sudden and dramatic end. Although the country had been suffering from weak economic fundamentals for years, the timing and severity of the currency crisis surprised most observers. The present study analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate ...

Measuring Performance Heterogeneity within Groups: A Two-dimensional Approach

We introduce a two-dimensional measure for the heterogeneity of performance within groups. It leads to a much more differentiated description of heterogeneity than alternative measures and it is relatively robust with regard to extreme values of small units ("outliers").

The Spatial Econometrics of Elephant Population Change: A Note

While previous research found no other variable than corruption to have a negative impact on the growth rate of the elephant populations of African countries, we show that one further significant impact is exerted by "neighbourhood effects". Elephants travel long distances, often crossing borders. Using spatial econometric tools, we find that elephant population changes in one country have a positive ...

Not for Lack of Trying: American Entrepreneurship in Black and White

Using a sample obtained from a survey conducted in the United States during summer 2002, we study the variables related to observed differences in the rate of entrepreneurial involvement between black and white Americans. We find strong evidence that differences in subjective and often biased perceptions are highly associated with entrepreneurial propensity across these two racial groups. In addition, ...

Wozu ein tieferes Verständnis von Statistik? Ein Kommentar zu Hager (2005)