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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation expectations, a fall in nominal wage growth, and a favorable supply-side shock. We show that the macroeconomic effects of persistently low inflation depend crucially ...
In:
European Economic Review
88 (2016), S. 88-107
| Jonas E. Arias, Christopher Erceg, MathiasTrabandt
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper studies the reaction of the Euro's value against major currencies to sovereign rating announcements from Moody's, S&P and Fitch CRAs during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2010–2012 based on event study methodology combined with GARCH models. We also analyze how the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish government long-term bonds were affected by CRA announcements. Our results reveal ...
In:
Journal of Financial Stability
24 (2016), S. 117-131
| Christopher F. Baum, Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We use changes in Brazil's tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2013 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. We find that an increase in Brazil's tax on foreign investment in bonds causes fund managers to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Fund managers simultaneously increase allocations ...
In:
Journal of International Economics
99 (2016), S. 85-104
| Kristin Forbes, Marcel Fratzscher, Thomas Kostka, Roland Straub
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In response to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), bank regulatory regimes were tightened world-wide to strengthen banking stability and the resilience of the banking sectors. Yet, it is often claimed that regulatory tightening may lead banks to cut back on lending and comes at the cost of a lower loan supply. The present paper uses a country panel for 50 advanced and emerging market economies to analyze ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
66 (2016), S. 113-135
| Marcel Fratzscher, Philipp König, Claudia Lambert
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In this paper, the authors construct a unique data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities across 24 countries. The data collected between January and May 2012 from 33 websites, are drawn from Internet advertisements of dwellings. Using the resulting sample of more than 1,000,000 announcements, the authors compute the quality-adjusted city-specific house prices. Based on ...
In:
Economics
9 (2015), 2015-28, S. 1-43
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Dirk Ulbricht
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Since the onset of the economic reforms more than three decades ago, the Chinese growth miracle has been based on exports and investment. While strong output growth was maintained even during the financial crisis, imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable development path, recent government policies have aimed to improve the role of private consumption. This article argues ...
In:
Development and Change
46 (2015), 6, S. 1331-1344
| Christian Dreger, Tongsan Wang, Yanqun Zhang
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper shows that bank liquidity regulation may be a "double-edged sword." Under certain conditions, it may hamper, rather than strengthen, a bank’s resilience to financial stress. The reason is the existence of two opposing effects of liquidity regulation, a liquidity effect and a solvency effect. The liquidity effect arises because a bank mitigates its risk of illiquidity when it increases its ...
In:
International Journal of Central Banking
11 (2015), 4, S. 129-168
| Philipp König
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does ...
In:
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
7 (2015), 1, S. 110-167
| Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Mathias Trabandt
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low-income countries? In this paper, we explore the channels through which the structure of banking markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study whether idiosyncratic volatility at the bank level can impact aggregate volatility. We find weak ...
In:
Pacific Economic Review
20 (2015), 1, S. 73-100
| Franziska Bremus, Claudia M. Buch
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper develops a new methodology for estimating both the automatic and discretionary components of fiscal policy in one reaction function using the differences between real-time and ex post data. Discretionary policy should respond to information available to the policy maker at the time (real-time data), whereas automatic fiscal policy should respond to the true state of the economy at the time ...
In:
Macroeconomic Dynamics
19 (2015), Iss. 1, S. 221-243
| Kerstin Bernoth, Andrew Hughes Hallet, John Lewis