Macroeconomics Department Publications

Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Europe Follows Conventional Models

This report examines China’s strategy for investing in Europe. While investing in Western Europe is primarily about obtaining access to advanced technologies, investing in Central and Eastern Europe is more about establishing a presence in the EU common market and expanding infrastructure—which also fits into the framework of the New Silk Road Initiative. An econometric analysis reveals that the investments ...

German Economy: Strong Employment Growth, Weak Investment Activity: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy's upward growth trend continues, with the economic output expected to increase by 1.4 percent this year with slightly overloaded capacities. Employment growth remains strong with the creation of 600,000 new jobs, which has in turn led to an increase in private consumption – one of the key growth drivers of the German economy. The higher inflation rates are dampening purchasing power, ...

World Economy Gaining Momentum, Risks Remain High: DIW Economic Outlook

The world economy continues on its upward growth path, with global production expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year and slightly more than that in 2018. The economies in both the developed and the emerging countries are gaining momentum. Solid output growth is expected for the U.S. and euro area over the forecast period; China’s growth rates remain high, though they are declining somewhat; and ...

Despite Uncertainty in the Global Economy, Germany Is on a Solid Growth Path: Editorial

How Rising Income Inequality Influenced Economic Growth in Germany

The cumulative growth rate of the German economy since reunification would have been around two percentage points higher if income inequality had remained constant. This is whatsimulations using the DIW Macroeconomic Model have shown. They were made under the assumption that the income distribution dynamics would not be influenced by any feedback effects of economic growth. In 2015, Germany’s real ...

A More Balanced Policy Mix Would Be More Successful: Seven Questions for Philipp Engler and Mathias Klein

Austerity Measures Amplified Crisis in Spain, Portugal, and Italy

The fiscal consolidation efforts of Spain, Italy, and Portugal from 2010 to 2014 did not achieve their goal of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio in any of the three countries. This Economic Bulletin examines why the spending cuts and tax increases, at times drastic, were unsuccessful and perceptibly contributed to sending the three countries back into recession. The sharp decrease in private household ...

Climate Protection and a New Operator: The Eastern German Lignite Industry Is Changing

According to the German federal government’s climate protection targets, there will be a continuous reduction of lignite-based electricity well before 2030. Simulations show that the currently authorized lignite mines in eastern Germany would not be fully depleted if the climate protection targets for 2030 were complied with. This makes planning for new mines or the expansion of existing ones superfluous. ...

Despite Weaker Job Market, Germany’s Economic Upswing Continues

In spite of persisting unfavorable external economic conditions, the German economy’s upward trend continues, with a growth of 1.2 percent expected for the coming year – slightly less than the 1.8 percent growth rate of 2016, a difference primarily due to the fact that 2017 has fewer workdays. A growth rate of 1.6 percent is expected for 2018. Although employment growth has slowed down somewhat since ...

Global Economy Picking Up

The world economy is gaining momentum after sluggish growth in the first half 2016 – which was primarily due to a weak expansion in the emerging markets – gave way to a slight acceleration. This trend is likely to continue, and will increasingly benefit the developed economies as well. The brightening labor market situation in advanced countries is leading to a higher level of consumer demand, which ...