Macroeconomics Department Publications

German Economy on a Stable Growth Path

Supported by dynamic domestic demand, the German economy is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year. As consumption and investment in construction are likely to weaken in the coming year, is hardly contributing to growth 2017 should amount to roughly 1.4 percent. Foreign trade is contributing relatively little to growth. In both years of the forecast period, capacities will be at more or less normal ...

Global Growth Still Subdued

The world economy has yet to regain momentum: after the already weak final quarter of 2015, the pace of expansion slowed down again in the first quarter of 2016. In the emerging countries’ economies, growth is expected to remain subdued, especially in China, where the gradual slowdown continues as overcapacities are reduced. Russia and Brazil are likely to remain in recession: apart from the still-low ...

Design and Pitfalls of Basel’s New Liquidity Rules

Following the financial crisis of 2008/09, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision introduced a new framework for banking regulation, commonly known as Basel III. For the first time since the inception of global banking regulation in 1988, Basel III contains explicit mandatory rules for liquidity regulation. The cornerstones of the new liquidity regulation are two balance sheet ratios that seek ...

In an International Comparison, Too Little Is Being Invested in German Industry: Six Questions to Marcel Fratzscher

Weak Corporate Investment Requires Immediate Action

Although the federal government has been taking steps to strengthen investment in Germany, it remains considerably low. This includes private investment, on which thepresent study focuses. German companies are barely investing more than they did before the crisis, but this is not the case elsewhere: in the US, for example, the level of investment is nearly 14 percent higher than it was in 2007. One ...

Countries with Large Current Account Deficits Could Find Themselves under Pressure: Eight Questions to Christoph Große Steffen

Interest Rate Lift-Off in the US: Moderate Impact to Date but Emerging Markets Should Brace Themselves

For the first time in almost a decade, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the end of 2015 - an initial step toward normalizing monetary policy which has been very expansive since the onset of the financial crisis. Ahead of the move, it was feared that the interest rate reversal might have a considerable impact on emerging markets because the hike would lead to more capital flows being ...

National Central Banks Should Become More Transparent: Seven Questions to Philipp König

The Eurosystem's Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA): Covert Monetary Financing or Legitimate Portfolio Management?

As well as implementing the common monetary policy, the national central banks (NCBs) which, together with the European Central Bank (ECB) form the Eurosystem, are also responsible for performing a range of national tasks. Among other things, these include the management of their financial assets portfolios. To ensure that this function does not interfere with the implementation of the single monetary ...

Private Consumption Will Remain a Powerful Growth Driver: Eight Questions to Simon Junker