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Refereed essays Web of Science
For many analysts, the Chinese economy is being spurred on by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with potentially adverse effects on the real economy. The house price development is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a data-set for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house ...
In:
Urban Policy and Research
31 (2013), 1, S. 27-39
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export ...
In:
Empirical Economics
45 (2013), 1, S. 39-60
| Christian Dreger, Dierk Herzer
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Survey-based indicators are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity. As such, consumer confidence might be informative for the future path of private consumption. Although the indicators receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power often appears to be very limited. This paper takes a fresh look at the data that serve as a basis for the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) ...
In:
Journal of Forecasting
32 (2013), 1, S. 10-18
| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion - a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals - are the main explanations for the rise in sovereign yield spreads and CDS spreads during the crisis, not only for ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
34 (2013), S. 60-82
| John Beirne, Marcel Fratzscher
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Refereed essays Web of Science
A large literature documents that migrants are attracted to destinations that already host migrants of their same nationality (co-national pull). Drawing on aggregate migration data from Spain, detailed by country of origin and province of destination for the period 1996-2006, we find that migrants are also attracted to destinations that already host migrants from nationalities that are adjacent to ...
In:
International Review of Economics and Finance
28 (2013), S. 51-61
| Nina Neubecker, Marcel Smolka
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The paper asks whether members of central bank decision-making committees should communicate with the public in a collegial manner, by conveying the consensus or majority view of the committee, or in an individualistic way, by providing the diversity of views among the committee members. It finds that more active as well as more consistent communication by committee members improves the predictability ...
In:
Public Choice
157 (2013), 1/2, S. 223-244
| Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We analyse the relationship between the debt-to-GDP ratio and real per capita GDP growth for euro area members and a broader set of industrial countries by distinguishing periods of sustainable and non-sustainable debt. Thresholds for debt are theory-driven and depend on macroeconomic conditions. If the nominal interest rate exceeds nominal output growth, primary budget surpluses are required to achieve ...
In:
Journal of Macroeconomics
38 (2013), Part B, S. 481-486
| Christian Dreger, Hans-Eggert Reimers
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU government bonds on the basis of a unique data set of issue spreads in the US and DM (Euro) bond market between 1993 and 2009. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premiums which increase with fiscal imbalances and depend negatively on the issuer's relative bond market size. The ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
31 (2012), 5, S. 975-995
| Kerstin Bernoth, Jürgen von Hagen, Ludger Schuknecht
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/ forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rate in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model offers a substantial improvement in forecast accuracy of GDP growth rate compared to a benchmark naive constant-growth ...
In:
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik
232 (2012), 4, S. 429-444
| Boriss Siliverstovs, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In this article, we compare the distribution of price changes between collusive and non-collusive periods for 11 major cartels. Based on the theoretical and empirical results from previous research, we discuss the four moments with respect to price changes (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis). However, none of the above descriptive statistics can be considered as a robust test allowing a differentiation ...
In:
German Economic Review
13 (2012), 3, S. 245-256
| Korbinian von Blanckenburg, Alexander Geist, Konstantin A. Kholodilin