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DIW Discussion Papers 1727 / 2018
This paper introduces a new international longitudinal database of governmental housing policies. The regulations are measured using binary variables based on a thorough analysis of the real-time country-specific legislation. Three major restrictive policies are considered: rent control, protection from restriction, and housing rationing. The database covers 47 countries and states between 1910 and ...
2018| Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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DIW Discussion Papers 1724 / 2018
The European debt crisis has revealed serious deficiencies and risks on a proper functioning of the monetary union. Against this backdrop, early warning systems are of crucial importance. In this study that focuses on euro area member states, the robustness of early warning systems to predict crises of government debt is evaluated. Robustness is captured via several dimensions, such as the chronology ...
2018| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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DIW Discussion Papers 1722 / 2018
We study the state-dependent trading behavior of financial intermediaries in the oil futures market, using structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching in heteroskedasticity. We decompose changes in futures price volatility into changes in the slopes of traders' demand curves and in the variability of their demand shocks. We find that the downward-sloping demand curve of intermediaries steepens ...
2018| Daniel Bierbaumer, Malte Rieth, Anton Velinov
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DIW Discussion Papers 1721 / 2018
We study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber, using quarterly data for a large panel of countries. To overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises, we propose to study large natural disasters. We find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks. It lowers inflation, raises output growth, ...
2018| Marcel Fratzscher, Christoph Grosse Steffen, Malte Rieth
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DIW Discussion Papers 1697 / 2017
This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and empirically realistic longrun levels of both capital taxes and public debt. Prior predictive analysis shows ...
2017| Malte Rieth
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DIW Discussion Papers 1675 / 2017
The relevance of spatial effects in the wage curve can be rationalized by the model of monopsonistic competition in regional labour markets. However, distortions in extracting the regional unemployment effects arise in standard regional (i.e. NUTS) classifications as they fail to adequately capture spatial processes. In addition, the nonstationarity of wages and unemployment is often ignored. Both ...
2017| Reinhold Kosfeld, Christian Dreger
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DIW Discussion Papers 1666 / 2017
In an urban economy, the distribution of people and real estate prices depends on the location of the central business district of a city. As distance from the city center increases, both prices and population density diminish, for travel costs increase in terms of time and money. As manufacturing gradually leaves the cities, the importance of consumer amenities as attractors of population to the urban ...
2017| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Irina Krylova, Darya Kryutchenko
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DIW Discussion Papers 1665 / 2017
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated linguistic sentiment algorithms and business cycle news rated by experts perform best and are superior to ...
2017| Benjamin Beckers, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Dirk Ulbricht
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DIW Discussion Papers 1661 / 2017
Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a falling trend in the euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and massive fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting ...
2017| Christian Dreger
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DIW Discussion Papers 1660 / 2017
Faster urbanization plays a key role in the Chinese economic transformation. However, at the Lewis turning point, the hukou institution constitutes a serious risk to the process, as it restricts the access of migrants to public services offered by cities. To attract further migration, firms started to accept a premium on top of the wage. Thus, the social discrimination introduced by the hukou system ...
2017| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang