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DIW Discussion Papers 1343 / 2013
Are capital controls and macroprudential measures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias and endogeneity; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by ...
2013| Kristin Forbes, Marcel Fratzscher, Roland Straub
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DIW Discussion Papers 1341 / 2013
The Chinese growth miracle was based on exports and investment in recent years. While strong output growth has been maintained even during the financial crisis, the imbalances within the country increased. To return to a more sustainable path of development, policies are directed to improve the role of private consumption. However, the institutional framework is an impediment to the transformation, ...
2013| Christian Dreger, Tongsan Wang, Yanqun Zhang
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DIW Discussion Papers 1339 / 2013
Using a panel of annual data for 20 countries we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked, especially in the case of fiscal adjustments lasting 2 or 3 years. We also find: (i) little evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization ...
2013| Luca Agnello, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Ricardo M. Sousa
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DIW Discussion Papers 1333 / 2013
This paper studies the impact of credit rating agency (CRA) announcements on the value of the Euro and the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012. The employed GARCH models show that CRA downgrade announcements negatively affected the value of the Euro currency and also increased its volatility. Downgrading ...
2013| Christopher F. Baum, Margarita Karpava, Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 1332 / 2013
This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. ...
2013| Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
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DIW Discussion Papers 1324 / 2013
Returns merely based on one purchasing price of an asset are uninformative for people regularly contributing to their old-age provision. Here, each purchase has an influence on the outcome. Still, they are commonly used in finance literature, giving an overly optimistic view of expected long-term stock market returns and risks. Moreover, around business cycle turning points when volatility is high, ...
2013| Dirk Ulbricht
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DIW Discussion Papers 1309 / 2013
This paper analyses macroeconomic and financial determinants of bad loans applying a SVAR approach to investigate whether excessive loans granted during expansionary phases can explain the more than proportional increase in non-performing loans during contractionary periods. The results indicate that the effects of a permanent shock to bad loans on the excess of credit are significant and persistent ...
2013| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Stefano Di Colli, Juan Sergio Lopez
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DIW Discussion Papers 1306 / 2013
This paper provides new evidence on migrant networks as determinants of the total size (scale) and skill structure of migration, using aggregate data from a recent migration boom to Spain. We draw upon McFadden (1984, 1422-1428) in order to develop and apply a three-level nested multinomial logit migration model. Our model accommodates varying degrees of similarity of destinations located in the same ...
2013| Nina Neubecker, Marcel Smolka, Anne Steinbacher
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DIW Discussion Papers 1304 / 2013
The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets in the US and globally across 65 countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a procyclical manner for capital flows to ...
2013| Marcel Fratzscher, Marco Lo Duca, Roland Straub
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DIW Discussion Papers 1302 / 2013
This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil prices since the early 2000s. Moreover, both oil prices and the US dollar are significantly affected by changes ...
2013| Marcel Fratzscher, Daniel Schneider, Ine Van Robays