Macroeconomics Department Publications

DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: Summer Upswing to Follow Winter Slump

The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places—mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns—and there are prospects of easing restrictions in Germany as well, the labor shortage caused by the current rates of infection is noticeable. ...

Construction Industry: High Price Momentum Continues, Industry Performing Well Despite COVID-19

Sales in the construction industry will continue to increase strongly in 2022 and 2023. Overall, DIW Berlin estimates a nominal increase in construction volume of almost 13 percent in 2022 and six percent in 2023 to 585 billion euros. In 2021, construction volume increased by ten percent to 488 billion euros, which is around 15 percent of GDP. This shows that construction demand remains at a high level ...

Income Inequality in Germany Temporarily Sinks During Crises

This study is the first to investigate the interdependence of income inequality and business cycles in Germany over the past 40 years. These fluctuations in income inequality are important because they are decisive for designing effective and targeted structural redistributive and stabilization measures. The results of this study show that income inequality in Germany fluctuates with the business cycle ...

Inflation in the Euro Area: Factors Mostly Have Only a Temporary Effect, but Risk of Prolonged Elevated Inflation Remains

Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy prices since the beginning of 2021. However, there are further indications that inflation in the euro area ...

Global Economy Returning to Its Recovery Course after Summer Setbacks: DIW Economic Outlook Autumn 2021

Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the second quarter of 2021, emerging economies were experiencing strict economic restrictions due to high case numbers. In some of these countries, the economy declined. ...

Labor-Intensive Firms Are a Catalyst for Monetary Policy and Its Distributive Effects

The mandate of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy is to ensure price stability. Interest rate changes by the ECB affect labor costs and the value added of firms. If both dimensions are not equally affected, monetary policy has a distributive effect between workers and shareholders. Balance sheet data from over two million companies in the euro area show that the labor costs in labor-intensive ...

Restrictive US Trade Policy Has a Significantly Negative Effect on Financial Markets

With its America First strategy, the former US administration turned away from an internationally oriented trade policy. It attempted to assert its interests, especially vis-à-vis China, with bilateral and mostly restrictive measures such as import tariffs. This Weekly Report shows that the costs of such a strategy are immense, at least in the medium-term analysis conducted: Almost all US industries ...

The Case of Deutsche Telekom: How Stock Market Crashes Can Persistantly Affect Household Investment Decisions

Since decades, only one fourth of German households invest in shares. One exception was during the three IPOs from 1996 to 2000 of the Deutsche Telekom, which gave Germans a taste to enter the stock market. However, the fall in the share price shortly after the second IPO, followed by corruption scandals of the company, put an end to their enthusiasm. The present study based on SOEP data shows that ...

Global Economy: Advanced Economies Facing a Strong Upturn: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination campaigns will presumably lead to a revival that will be especially noticeable in the retail and service sectors ...

German Economy with Delayed Recovery; Industry in a Tight Spot: Editorial