Macroeconomics Department Publications

Signs of New Housing Bubble in Many OECD Countries – Lower Risk in Germany

Ten years after the worldwide financial and economic crisis was triggered by the American real estate market, real estate prices are rising around the globe. Concerns about a new housing bubble are growing. The present report based on OECD data for 20 countries demonstrates that this concern is not unwarranted. In eight countries, including the United Kingdom and the USA, the evolution of real estate ...

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Increased Uncertainty Is Dampening Growth

The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to 4.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. However, global expansion appears to remain intact. In developed economies, primarily the good labor market ...

The German Economy Is Slowing down Somewhat: Editorial

A Stabilization Fund Can Make the Euro Area More Crisis-Proof

Reorganizing European fiscal policy is a main topic in current reform considerations. In particular, the creation of a European stabilization mechanism is being discussed. This study examines the macroeconomic effects of a stabilization fund, the economic consequences of which are analyzed in an equilibrium model. The model shows that a stabilization fund reduces economic fluctuations and is thus a ...

German and Euro Area Economies Will Benefit from a U.S. Interest Rate Hike in the Short Term

To accompany the economic upturn in the U.S., the Federal Reserve Bank has been raising its benchmark interest rate incrementally. In an increasingly globalized world in which the American economy plays a key role, an action like this has spillover effects on the international level. Based on a dynamic factor model, the present study shows that the member states of the euro area—Germany in particular—can ...

New Government’s Policies Give the Thriving German Economy an Additional Boost

The German economy will grow by 2.4 percent this year, especially due to strong foreign demand. Brisk investment activity continues in this economic climate; stimulus from foreign trade, however, is weakening somewhat. Despite strong consumer demand in the coming quarters, employment and economic output growth are losing momentum. However, stimulus measures from the new federal government will increase ...

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Expansion Continues but Is Losing Momentum

The global economy is likely to grow by over four percent this year and somewhat less next year. DIW Berlin has slightly raised its forecast for both years. Developed economies as well as emerging markets are experiencing an upturn; however, growth rates are likely to be slightly lower in the future. One reason for the sound global economy is the fact that the labor market situation is steadily improving, ...

New Government Prolongs German Economic Upswing: Editorial

German Right-Wing Party AfD Finds More Support in Rural Areas with Aging Populations

This study examines in which setting the German political party Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) performed well in the 2017 parliamentary elections. The AfD’s popularity was relatively high in electoral districts with an above-average amount of craft businesses, a disproportionately high amount of older residents and workers in the manufacturing sector, and—applicable mainly ...

German Economy: Upswing Has Gained Breadth but Will Not Hold Pace: DIW Economic Outlook

The upswing of the German economy continues and since the beginning of 2017, even at a somewhat faster pace. Sharp gains in employment are still driving consumption. And companies are investing significantly more in machines and facilities. Many global risks that previously limited the propensity to invest—in Germany and many other countries—have vanished. And the euro area is also finally feeling ...