Macroeconomics Department Publications

Weak Investment Dampens Europe’s Growth

In the course of the economic and financial crisis, investment activity, which was not very strong to begin with, in Europe and especially the Eurozone caved in. In relation to gross domestic product, fixed capital formation declined by four percentage points since 2008. Already prior to the crisis, investment activity was rather weak in parts of the Eurozone — amongst others in Germany. This finding ...

We Need to Give Impetus to the Private Sector: Six Questions to Marcel Fratzscher

An Investment Agenda for Europe

Only strong economic growth will help Europe emerge from its crisis. The reforms implemented to date at national and European level have failed to impact the economypositively; this is due to excessive national, corporate, and private debts, the flawed banking system, the lack of structural reforms, an insufficient institutional framework at European level, as well as a persisting climate of distrust ...

Weak Inflation and Threat of Deflation in the Euro Area: Limits of Conventional Monetary Policy

Inflation in the euro area has been below the European Central Bank's target for almost a year now and it is also expected to remain at a very low level in the near future. On the one hand, such a low level of inflation is not in line with the ECB's objective. On the other hand, there is the risk that this situation will lead to a slide into deflation. In view of the ECB's historically low policy rates, ...

The ECB’s Policy of Low Interest Rates Is Indispensable for Now: Five Questions to Dorothea Schäfer

Low Base Interest Rates: An Opportunity in the Euro Debt Crisis

Member states of the euro area have been struggling with the legacies of the severe financial and economic crisis for four years now. But debt ratios are still rising. Negative primary balances, low growth, and low inflation do not allow for a recovery similar to the one in the US after the Second World War. Between 1946 and 1953, the US was able to almost halve its debt with no haircuts. The crisis ...

China's New Course: Strengthening Private Consumption: Five Questions to Christian Dreger

Prospects for Consumption-Based Growth in China

The Chinese model for economic growth is undergoing a fundamental reorientation. While output has been driven by investments and exports in recent decades, private consumption is expected to become a major trigger for future GDP growth. However, the conditions for higher demand from households are far from optimal: the savings rate is high, driven in particular by the low level of social security and ...

Settling TARGET Balances after the Euro Crisis: Seven Questions to Claudia Lambert and Philipp König

TARGET Balances - An Anchor of Stability

The debate about TARGET2, the payment system of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), has resulted in controversial discussions in Germany in recent years. The present study by DIW Berlin concludes that fears often expressed in this context of the risks to Germany are largely unfounded. Germany is - in contrast to what is often claimed - one the beneficiaries of the Target system. In particular, ...