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DIW Discussion Papers 1966 / 2021
This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...
2021| Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
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DIW Discussion Papers 1964 / 2021
Using a wide variety of business cycle dating and filtering techniques, this paper documents the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. First, all incomes are cyclical and co-move with the business cycle. Second, lower and higher income individuals experience significantly larger fluctuations across the business cycle than middle-income individuals. Third, these fluctuations ...
2021| Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Sandra Pasch
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DIW Discussion Papers 1956 / 2021
We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation ...
2021| Lukas Boer, Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth
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DIW Discussion Papers 1954 / 2021
We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after ...
2021| Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth
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DIW Discussion Papers 1953 / 2021
We show that in a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity, fiscal policy can be a perfect substitute for monetary policy: three simple conditions for consumption taxes, labor taxes, and the government debt level are sufficient to induce the same consumption and labor supply of each household and, thus, the same allocation as interest rate policies. When monetary policy is constrained by a ...
2021| Hannah Magdalena Seidl, Fabian Seyrich
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DIW Discussion Papers 1952 / 2021
Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996- 2000 provide an optimal base to address this question, as it is known for its emotional character and is reputedly “the last time Germans invested in stocks.” Using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) household survey data, I show that ...
2021| Chi Hyun Kim
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DIW Discussion Papers 1943 / 2021
Since the European debt crisis economists and politicians discuss intensively the sovereign-bank nexus. The high activity in sovereign bond issuance required to mitigate the burden of the Covid19 crisis will rather intensify this debate than calm it down. Surprisingly, however, we still have only limited knowledge about the impact of a home bias in sovereign exposure on bank stability. This paper provides ...
2021| Dominik Meyland, Dorothea Schäfer
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DIW Discussion Papers 1938 / 2021
This papers analyzes the effect of the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) and the recent Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on the yields of eligible green bonds, a new but rapidly growing segment of the corporate bond market. We exploit these policy changes using a difference-in-differences strategy, with ineligible corporate green bonds issued in euro, U.S. dollars and Swedish ...
2021| Franziska Bremus, Franziska Schütze, Aleksandar Zaklan
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DIW Discussion Papers 1937 / 2021
We study the relationship between crowding and performance in the active mutual fund industry. We construct a fund-specific measure of crowding using the equity holdings overlap of 17,364 global funds. Funds in the top decile of crowding underperform passive benchmark funds by 1.4% per year. The impact of crowding on performance cannot be attributed to diseconomies of scale. We explore several mechanisms: ...
2021| Tanja Artiga Gonzalez, Teodor Dyakov, Justus Inhoffen, Evert Wipplinger
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DIW Discussion Papers 1936 / 2021
This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued ...
2021| Franziska Bremus, Thomas Krause, Felix Noth