This paper examines the factors that influence the persistence of inflation following energy price shocks. Although the current oil price shock is economically significant, it is less likely to generate persistent inflationary pressures than the energy crisis of 2022– 23, as European gas markets remain relatively stable. Nevertheless, elevated geopolitical uncertainty and households’ recent inflation ...
This paper evaluates the scope and coverage of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS), an international automatic exchange of information regime intended to eliminate bank secrecy and reduce cross-border tax evasion. We obtain new, aggregated CRS data from 26 countries, covering roughly 30% of the global amount reported by the OECD for the year 2022. We first show that cross-border financial wealth continues ...
This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's mandate. The prevailing economic and inflation outlook supports further rate cuts. However, the high level ...
We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts”. Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 ...
