Macroeconomics Department Publications

Brexit: What’s at Stake for the Financial Sector?

The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union will have far- reaching implications for the British financial sector. London is currently the financial capital of Europe, and the UK's financial institutions benefit from passport rights that allow them to provide their services throughout the Single Market. The UK plays two key roles in the European financial system: the first as a major hub for ...

Brexit Decision Puts Strain on German Economy

As a result of Britain’s decision to leave the EU, global economic output is likely to grow at a somewhat slower pace than anticipated. The decision will have consequences for the UK and for the euro area in particular; this is also confirmed by simulations produced by the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM). An expected deterioration of economic relations—especially between the UK ...

Transforming Berlin from a Startup Hub into an Economically Thriving Metropolis: Editorial

Brexit Decision Is Likely to Reduce Growth in the Short Term

The high degree of uncertainty about the United Kingdom’s (UK) economic future following the June 23 Brexit referendum is leading to a flight into safe assets, and will most likely worsen financing conditions for British companies. In addition, companies could reduce investment and postpone hiring decisions. This is likely to start dampening economic growth in the UK in the short term, thus reducing ...

German Economy on a Stable Growth Path

Supported by dynamic domestic demand, the German economy is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year. As consumption and investment in construction are likely to weaken in the coming year, is hardly contributing to growth 2017 should amount to roughly 1.4 percent. Foreign trade is contributing relatively little to growth. In both years of the forecast period, capacities will be at more or less normal ...

Global Growth Still Subdued

The world economy has yet to regain momentum: after the already weak final quarter of 2015, the pace of expansion slowed down again in the first quarter of 2016. In the emerging countries’ economies, growth is expected to remain subdued, especially in China, where the gradual slowdown continues as overcapacities are reduced. Russia and Brazil are likely to remain in recession: apart from the still-low ...

Design and Pitfalls of Basel’s New Liquidity Rules

Following the financial crisis of 2008/09, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision introduced a new framework for banking regulation, commonly known as Basel III. For the first time since the inception of global banking regulation in 1988, Basel III contains explicit mandatory rules for liquidity regulation. The cornerstones of the new liquidity regulation are two balance sheet ratios that seek ...

In an International Comparison, Too Little Is Being Invested in German Industry: Six Questions to Marcel Fratzscher

Weak Corporate Investment Requires Immediate Action

Although the federal government has been taking steps to strengthen investment in Germany, it remains considerably low. This includes private investment, on which thepresent study focuses. German companies are barely investing more than they did before the crisis, but this is not the case elsewhere: in the US, for example, the level of investment is nearly 14 percent higher than it was in 2007. One ...

Countries with Large Current Account Deficits Could Find Themselves under Pressure: Eight Questions to Christoph Große Steffen