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DIW Economic Bulletin 11/12 / 2013

Structural Shift in Global Natural Gas Markets: Demand Boom in Asia, Supply Shock in the US

The significance of natural gas is on the rise due to the restructuring and decarbonization of energy systems worldwide. Natural gas is widely available and flexible as it can be used in electricity generation, manufacturing, transport, and private households. Compared to other fossil fuels, natural gas produces relatively low carbon dioxide emissions during combustion. For this reason, the natural ...

2013| Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, Christian von Hirschhausen
Diskussionspapiere 1575 / 2016

Mitigating Environmental and Public-Safety Risks of United States Crude-by-Rail Transport

We present a medium-term market equilibrium model of the North American crude oil sector via which we develop a scenario analysis to investigate strategies to mitigate the environmental and public-safety risks from crude-by-rail transportation across the United States. The model captures crude oil movements across rail- roads, pipelines and waterways, while distinguishing between light and heavy crude ...

2016| Olufolajimi Oke, Daniel Huppmann, Max Marshall, Ricky Poulton, Sauleh Siddiqui
Diskussionspapiere 1553 / 2016

North American Natural Gas Model Impact of Cross-Border Trade with Mexico

Natural gas as a source of energy has attracted a lot of interest as its emissions rate and price are lower than other fossil fuel energy sources. In the U.S., natural gas-fired power generation has been rising, as coal has declined as a share of the fuel mix. Likewise, Mexico recently launched its energy reform with focus on greatly expanding use of natural gas over other fossil fuels, primarily in ...

2016| Felipe Feijoo, Daniel Huppmann, Larissa Sakiyama, Sauleh Siddiqui
Diskussionspapiere 1548 / 2016

Lifting the US Crude Oil Export Ban: A Numerical Partial-Equilibrium Analysis

The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in oil production from shale plays in North America have brought scrutiny on the export ban for crude oil in the United States. This paper examines the global flows and strategic refinery adjustments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial-equilibrium model. We consider de- tailed supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil qualities (supply), ...

2016| Lissy Langer, Daniel Huppmann, Franziska Holz
Diskussionspapiere 1521 / 2015

The Impact of Policy Measures on Future Power Generation Portfolio and Infrastructure: A Combined Electricity and CCTS Investment and Dispatch Model (ELCO)

This paper presents a general electricity-CO2 (ELCO) modeling framework that is able to simulate interactions of the energy-only market with different forms for national policy measures. We set up a two sector model where players can invest into various types of generation technologies including renewables, nuclear and Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS). For a detailed representation of ...

2015| Roman Mendelevitch, Pao-Yu Oei
Diskussionspapiere 1516 / 2015

Shaking Dutch Grounds Won't Shatter the European Gas Market

The Netherlands have been a pivotal supplier in Western European natural gas markets in the last decades. Recent analyses show that the Netherlands would play an important role in replacing Russian supplies in Germany and France in case of Russian export disruption (Richter & Holz, 2015). However, the Netherlands have suffered from regular earthquakes in recent years that are related to the natural ...

2015| Franziska Holz, Hanna Brauers, Philipp M. Richter, Thorsten Roobeek
Diskussionspapiere 1475 / 2015

An Exact Solution Method for Binary Equilibrium Problems with Compensation and the Power Market Uplift Problem

We propose a novel method to find Nash equilibria in games with binary decision variables by including compensation payments and incentive-compatibility constraints from non-cooperative game theory directly into an optimization framework in lieu of using first order conditions of a linearization, or relaxation of integrality conditions. The reformulation offers a new approach to obtain and interpret ...

2015| Daniel Huppmann, Sauleh Siddiqui
Diskussionspapiere 1471 / 2015

Market Power Rents and Climate Change Mitigation: A Rationale for Coal Taxes?

In this paper we investigate the introduction of an export tax on steam coal levied by an individual country (Australia), or a group of major exporting countries. The policy motivation would be twofold: generating tax revenues against the background of improved terms-of-trade, while CO2 emissions are reduced. We construct and numerically apply a two-level game consisting of an optimal policy problem ...

2015| Philipp M. Richter, Roman Mendelevitch, Frank Jotzo
Diskussionspapiere 1372 / 2014

Elasticities of Supply for the US Natural Gas Market

In this paper we investigate natural gas producer's reactions to changes in market prices. We estimate price elasticities of aggregated supply in the most competitive market for natural gas: the United States. Using monthly time series data form 1987 to 2012 our analysis is based on an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound Cointegration approach to obtain short and long-run elasticities of natural ...

2014| Micaela Ponce, Anne Neumann
Diskussionspapiere 1370 / 2014

Market Power, Fuel Substitution and Infrastructure: A Large-Scale Equilibrium Model of Global Energy Markets

Assessing and quantifying the impacts of technological, economic, and policy shifts in the global energy system requires large-scale numerical models. We propose a dynamic multi-fuel market equilibrium model that combines endogenous fuel substitution within demand sectors and in power generation, detailed infrastructure capacity constraints and investment, as well as strategic behaviour and market ...

2014| Daniel Huppmann, Ruud Egging
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