Publications of the Project: Fossil Resource markets and climate policy: Stranded assets, Expectations and the political Economy of climate change (FoReSee)

Stranded Assets in the Coal Export Industry? The Case of the Australian Galilee Basin

Steam coal exporters face increasing uncertainty about future coal demand and risks of asset stranding. Nevertheless, new export-oriented coal mine projects are still brought forward. In this study, we use the coal sector model COALMOD-World to assess the economic prospects of investments in the export-oriented steam coal sector, and in particular of coal mines in the Galilee Basin, Australia. We parameterize ...

What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. Complementary to these efforts and connecting ...

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, ...

The Death Spiral of Coal in the USA: Will New U.S. Energy Policy Change the Tide?

The Trump administration has promised to stop the spiraling down of the U.S. coal industry that has been going on for several years. We discuss the origins of the decline of the U.S. coal industry and new policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that a further decrease of coal consumption in the U.S. electricity sector must be expected because of the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired ...

Global Futures of Energy, Climate, and Policy: Qualitative and Quantitative Foresight towards 2055

Existing long-term energy and climate scenarios are typically a rather simple extrapolation of past trends. Both qualitative and quantitative outlooks co-exist, but they often focus narrowly on individual perspectives, which is opposed to the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. Therefore, this study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary narratives that give insight into four ...

Yemen's Solar Revolution: Developments, Challenges, Opportunities; Report with Policy Recommendations Based on Results from Research Projects Financed by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research ("FoReSee", 01LA1811B) and the Energy Access and Development Program ("The Future of Yemen's Energy Sector“)

Yemen has been involved in a civil war with foreign military intervention since 2014. Throughout the conflict, the majority of the population have been cut off from the public electricity grid. However, as alternatives have been unavailable, the country has turned to decentralised solar energy, giving rise to an unprecedented deployment of solar (home) systems. This report uses own calculations, new ...

Energy, Climate, and Policy towards 2055: An Interdisciplinary Energy Outlook (DIW-REM Outlook)

New Coal Mines in the Australian Galilee Basin Are Not Economically Viable and Are Prone to Become Stranded Assets

To limit the effects of climate change, we must significantly curtail the trading and use of coal as an energy source. Although the rise of renewable energy sources has already led to a reduction in the demand for and use of coal, new export-oriented coal mine projects are still being approved, and they often receive strong political support. However, whether these projects are economically viable ...

From Negative to Positive Carbon Pricing in Mexico

Over the course of a decade, Mexico transitioned from a peak of 1.8% of GDP given as fuel subsidies in 2008 to generating positive fuel tax revenues equivalent to 1.6% of its GDP in 2018. This paper analyzes Mexico's carbon pricing experience: the mechanisms that made fossil fuel subsidies such a large burden on public finances, the strategies followed in its five-year phase-out, and the institutional ...

Freedom Gas to Europe: Scenarios Analyzed Using the Global Gas Model

State-of-the-art, open access numerical modeling of imperfectly competitive energy markets offers a sound and transparent way to address topical research questions in energy and commodity markets. We use an open access equilibrium model, the Global Gas Model (GGM), and sector-specific, politically motivated scenarios to investigate the prospects for sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. ...