External refereed essays

Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence for Chile

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile. It addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on the economic growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, the study ...

Multicointegration in US Consumption Data

The present study tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, the study exploits the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and the stock of consumers' wealth, which can be considered as cumulative past discrepancies between ...

Manufacturing Exports, Mining Exports and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Chile (1960 -2001)

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the problem of specification bias under which previous studies have suffered, and focuses on the impact of manufactured and mining exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and mining exports affect economic growth via increases ...

On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant is Heterogeneity across Countries?

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample ...

Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time-series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, several ...

Modelling the Structural Break in Volatility

Recent studies suggest that US and other developed economies have become considerably stabilized in terms of volatility since the mid-1980s (Stock and Watson, 2002). This study models the structural break in volatility using a dynamic factor model with two state variables: one capturing cyclical fluctuations and another reflecting volatility decline. The new model confirms a one-time volatility reduction ...

Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: A Panel-Based Assessment of Accuracy and Efficiency

We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly - but not strongly - efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by ...

When Do Forecasters Disagree? An Assessment of German Growth and Inflation Forecast Dispersion

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970-2004 we analyse the dispersion of growth and inflation forecasts. Forecast dispersion varies over time and is particularly high before and during recessions. There is no clear link between forecast dispersion and the subsequent forecast error. Forecast dispersion is positively correlated with the volatility of macroeconomic variables, but not ...

Aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland: Bestandsaufnahme und Bewertung der mikroökonomischen Evaluationsergebnisse

Ganztagsschulen und Erwerbsbeteiligung von Müttern: eine Mikrosimulationsstudie für Deutschland

Explaining Eastern Germany's Wage Gap: The Impact of Structural Change

Intermediation in Foreign Trade: When Do Exporters Rely on Intermediaries?

Nichtparametrische Dekomposition der Lohndifferenzen zwischen ost- und westdeutschen Betrieben

Forecasting the German Cyclical Turning Points: Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching

A Note on R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand

Political Economy of Commuting Subsidies

We study the political economy of commuting subsidies in a model of a monocentric city with two income classes. Depending on housing demand and transport costs, either the rich or the poor live in the central city and the other group in the suburbs. Commuting subsidies increase the net income of those with long commutes or high transport costs. They also affect land rents and therefore the income of ...

An Economic Analysis of Security Policies

This paper analyses public policy choices in the security economy from an economic perspective. It discusses the role of public goods for national and global security and identifies the importance of the first- and second-order indirect effects of insecurity on economic activity, which include the behavioural responses of agents and the government to security measures, akin to such effects in insurance ...

Why Are Europeans So Tough on Migrants?

Regionalization of Innovation Policy: Introduction to the Special Issue

Intervieweffekte bei der Erhebung des Körpergewichts in Bevölkerungsumfragen

Daten zum Körpergewicht der Bevölkerung werden aus Kostengründen oftmals nicht objektiv gemessen, sondern durch subjektive Angaben erhoben. Frühere Untersuchungen zur Erhebung des Körpergewichts zeigen, dass sich subjektive Gewichtsangaben von objektiv gemessenen Daten unterscheiden, was auf den fehlenden Bekennermut der Befragten zurückgeführt wird. Verschiedene Methodenstudien deuten darauf hin, ...