Skip to content!

June 5, 2019


International spillovers of the Fed and ECB monetary policy surprises


June 5, 2019


Karl Popper Room
DIW Berlin
Room 2.3.020
Mohrenstr. 58
10117 Berlin


Marek Jarocinski, European Central Bank

This paper uses a structural vector autoregression identified with the high frequency approach to study the international spillovers of the Fed and ECB monetary policy surprises. It distinguishes between the news about monetary policy (monetary policy shocks) and news about the economy in these surprises. The paper finds that the Fed monetary policy shocks have a very strong effect on the euro area, mainly through financial channels rather than through trade. By contrast, the ECB monetary policy shocks have no detectable effect on the US. The news about the state of the economy affect the risk appetite of global investors, with significant implications for the capital flows and financial conditions.


Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Head of Forecasting Department in the Macroeconomics Department