DIW Weekly Report

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Construction Industry Momentum Continues – State Stimulus Impacts Prices

According to the German Institute for Economic Research construction volume forecast, the country’s construction industry will continue to flourish in the coming years. Companies can count on a rise in the nominal construction volume of around 7.5 percent in 2019 and 6.5 percent next year. The industry’s business cycle continues to be supported by the flourishing residential construction sector, which ...

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Growth Rate of German Economy Normalizing after Prolonged Economic Boom: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy continues to perform well although the boom has ended. However, at 1.5 percent, German GDP will increase this year at a lower rate than expected at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, concerns about an imminent recession should give way to the assessment that the pace of the German economy is normalizing after years of above-average growth due to robust foreign demand and increasing ...

Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighs on Trade and Investment: DIW Economic Outlook

The global expansion weakened somewhat in the third quarter while the downside risks have increased. DIW Berlin’s forecast— almost unchanged—indicates an expansion in global economic production of 4.3 percent for 2018 and 3.9 percent for 2019. In 2020, momentum will slow down further to 3.6 percent. In some countries, temporary factors contributed to the economic slowdown. In major advanced economies, ...

Germany’s Economic Boom Is Cooling Off: Editorial

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EU Government Bonds and Banks: Home Bias Pervasive throughout Member States but Capital Requirements Differ Greatly

The current banking regulatory framework assigns EU government bonds a risk weight of zero. Since the European debt crisis, there has been increasing controversy over eliminating this equity capital privilege, which is viewed as contributing to the close relationship between state and bank risks. This report analyses the development of home bias—the tendency of major European banks to invest disproportionately ...

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Social Sustainability Labels: Promises and Reality in the Example of Fairtrade-Coffee

Fairtrade certification is intended to improve both the income and living conditions of producers, thereby creating more fairness in international trade. However, theoretical considerations and empirical studies show that this goal is only achieved to a limited extent, at least for coffee: Faitrade certification leads at best to small increases in income for coffee farmers. The results on the reduction ...

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Research and Productivity – Manufacturing Companies in Cities Have an Advantage

Companies invest in research and development (R&D) to safeguard their competitive ability and increase productivity. Using extensive company data for Germany, the study shows that manufacturing companies that engage in R&D activities and that are located in a central urban agglomeration are especially productive. They additionally benefit from knowledge created by R&D activities of other companies ...

German Industry Returning to Cities

Is the German manufacturing industry, which has been leaving cities for less densely populated areas since World War II, being lured back into urban centers? This report analyses industrial start-ups from 2012 to 2016 and derives their preferred locations. The analysis shows that the start-up intensity in large agglomerations is on average almost 40 percent higher than in the other regions of Germany. ...

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Rental Market Regulation over the Last 100 Years in an International Comparison

Residential rental markets regulations have become an integral part of everyday life in Germany as in almost all other countries. The strong house price and rent increases over the past decade have fueled social debate on this issue. Tenant movements worldwide are demanding tighter regulations and advocating for affordable housing as a central civil right. In contrast, those skeptical of regulation ...

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EU Immigration Has Increased Germany’s Economic Growth

Immigration to Germany has increased significantly since 2011, primarily due to the immigration of citizens from other euro area countries and those which joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. This increase is mainly attributable to a lack of immigration barriers and the good economic situation on the German labor market compared to other European countries. Model simulations show that GDP growth in Germany ...

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A Sustainable Development of Inflation in Euro Area Requires Continuously Improving Labor Market

In the past five years, the inflation in the euro area has been well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) aimed inflation rate of close to but below two percent for achieving its objective of price stabilization in the medium term. The present analysis shows that expectations of low inflation, rising cyclical unemployment, and external factors such as low crude oil prices were responsible. In the ...

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