DIW Weekly Report

Analyzing ECB Communications Improves Forecasting of Interest Rate Decisions

For central banks, official communications serve as essential monetary policy instruments: In press releases, speeches, and interviews, central banks explain their decisions, manage expectations, and promote confidence in their strategy. This Weekly Report analyzes European Central Bank (ECB) communications from January 2019 to March 2025 using a specially trained artificial intelligence (AI) text ...

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Power Generation from Nuclear Fusion Not Expected in the Foreseeable Future: Applied Research Developing Dynamically

Research into nuclear fusion for military purposes has been regularly conducted since the 1940s. However, the idea of being able to use nuclear power for power generation within mere decades has not come to fruition. While some successes have been highlighted by the media, such as the experiments at the National Ignition Facility in California at the end of 2022, the main problems remain as challenging ...

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The Gender Pension Gap Grows the More Children a Woman Has

The gender pension gap, the difference in pension entitlements between men and women, is 32 percent for 60-yearolds according to data from the German Pension Insurance (Deutsche Rentenversicherung). In addition, there is a considerable motherhood pension gap: Statutory pension entitlements for mothers and childless women differ greatly. Pension-related childcare credits, which were introduced in 1986 ...

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Policy Changes Leaving Marks on the Economy

The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the economy. Structural adjustment processes and the erratic trade policy of the Trump administration are weighing ...

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Bitcoin Is Not the New Gold

The price of cryptocurrency Bitcoin has risen sharply over the past ten years, with many investors adding Bitcoin to their portfolios, benefitting from price increases and diversifying their investments. But is Bitcoin suitable for this purpose? This Weekly Report examines the extent to which Bitcoin, like gold, can contribute to the diversification of an investment portfolio. To achieve this, we have ...

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Income Distribution: Signs of a Trend Reversal In the Poverty Risk; Single Parents Less Frequently at Risk of Poverty

Despite high inflation, the real gross hourly wages of employees grew by around 15 percent from 1995 to 2022. In particular, the lowest wage decile caught back up to all other deciles following a sharp drop in real wages. At the same time, the low-wage sector has shrunk by nearly five percentage points since 2007, and by even more in the east of Germany (14 percent). In 2022, 18.5 percent of employees ...

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Loneliness in Germany: Low-Income Earners at Highest Risk of Loneliness

Loneliness poses a serious health risk: Along with negatively impacting life quality, it can even shorten the life span. This Weekly Report investigates loneliness in Germany using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data from 2021 on loneliness. The analyses highlight the prevalence of three facets of loneliness (aloneness, isolation, exclusion) as well as regional differences and high-risk groups. The results ...

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Despite Rising Shares of Women on Executive And Supervisory Boards, Gender Parity Remains A Far-off Goal

In 2024, the share of women on the top decision-making boards of the largest companies in Germany increased. A solid 19 percent of all executive board members at the 200 largest companies are now women, and almost 26 percent of members at the 40 largest listed companies are women. The financial sector is also catching up in this regard. Moreover, legal requirements, such as the inclusion requirement ...

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Turnaround in Sight for the Construction Industry; Political Pressure for Action Is Nonetheless Increasing

Real construction volume is expected to decline for the fifth year in a row: A decline of nearly four percent is expected for 2024 and it should fall by almost one percent in 2025. However, the construction industry may manage to reverse the trend in 2026, when real construction volume is projected to grow by two percent. However, this should not obscure the fact that the declines over the past years ...

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DIW Berlin Economic Outlook: German Economy Stuck in Limbo While Trade Conflicts Threaten the Global Economy

The German economy is stuck in a difficult position as it faces both slow growth as well as structural change. The continuing lack of orders in manufacturing, increasing international competition, and sluggish development in industry-related services are now affecting the labor market and leading not only to short-time work but to layoffs too, despite the continuing skilled worker shortage. While GDP ...

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