The joint research of the Graduate Center's PhD candidate Laura Pagenhardt and Martin Gornig on the end of Germany's construction boom has been published in the current DIW weekly report. Congratulations!
We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. ...
This paper investigates the effects of the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany on the wages and employment of migrants. Migrants are an overrepresented group in the low-wage sector and can be expected to particularly benefit from a minimum wage. We combine a “differential trend adjusted difference-in-differences estimator” (DTADD) and descriptive evidence to evaluate the impact of the ...
This paper studies if workers infer from correlation about causal effects in the context of the part-time wage penalty. Differences in hourly pay between full-time and part-time workers are strongly driven by worker selection and systematic sorting. Ignoring these selection effects can lead to biased expectations about the consequences of working part-time on wages (’selection neglect bias’). Based ...
Following the construction boom of recent years in Germany, inflation and supply bottlenecks hit the industry hard in 2022. While nominal construction volume increased by nearly 14 percent, it decreased by two percent when adjusted for inflation. Residential construction, which is urgently needed, was particularly affected. In 2023 and 2024, it is expected that investors will show restraint and that ...
Based on various data sources, the workshop will examine the economic and psychological situation of the self-employed three years after the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Next to analyzing the immediate impact of the crisis, the workshop will address the adjustment measures taken by the self-employed and the long-term consequences. Possible research questions include what strategies the self...
This project will create a methodological framework for embedding a transition model with free (unknown) parameters in a dynamic, small-scale microsimulation. A transition model of this kind will also enable latent and/or only partially observed processes to be represented in a microsimulation. The key element for embedding a transition model with free parameters is a metamodel (or statistical...
Financial systems have developed rapidly in many developing countries. These changes increase the need for research into their effects, especially with a focus on financial inclusion / individual responses.To this end DIW Berlin will host a workshop in the field of “Finance and Development” to be held in Berlin on April 27 in the afternoon and full day April 28, 2023. The workshop will not have...
