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The Multifaceted Impact of US Trade Policy on Financial Markets

We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation ...

DIW Berlin publishes study as part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI)

How can international public climate finance effectively support climate policy of partner countries? The four-year project of the Climate Policy Department sheds light on effective steps to achieve the Paris climate goals in cooperation with four other research institutes in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. DIW Berlin examines in a new study how international public climate finance (ICF) ...

On the Right Track? – The Role of Work Experience in Migrant Mothers’ Current Employment Probability

This paper investigates the role of work experience in migrant mothers’ current employment in Germany. Unlike previous papers, we focus on actual experience and add the motherhood aspect. To this end, we use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 2013-2018 including the IAB-SOEP Migration Sample. Having immigrated to Germany and female sex are the two treatments of our sample of 491 migrant mothers, ...

Exchange Rates, Foreign Currency Exposure and Sovereign Risk

We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) and conditional on data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data-based identification approach of the structural shocks that allows to account for the complex interrelations within the triad of exchange rates, ...

Jan Berkes has successfully defended his dissertation

Jan Berkes has successfully defended his dissertation "Causes and Consequences of Educational Attainment and Household Decisions - Six Essays in Applied Microeconomics" supervised by Katharina Spieß (1st supervisor) and Lukas Menkhoff (2nd supervisor) at Free University Berlin. Congratulations!

Daniel Graeber has successfully (with summa cum laude!) defended his dissertation

Daniel Graeber has successfully (with summa cum laude!) defended his dissertation "Socio-Economic Causes and Consequences of Individual Health as well as Public Health Crises" supervised by Professor Dr. Marco Caliendo (1st supervisor) and Professor Dr. Daniel D. Schnitzlein (2nd supervisor) at University of Potsdam. Congratulations!

Taxing inheritances – a way to raise revenues and curb wealth inequality?

In Germany, 200 to 400 billion euros are inherited or donated every year. Inheritances are unevenly distributed, with wealthy households receiving far greater inheritances than poor households, and inheritances and gifts are taxed only lightly compared with earned income. As inequalities are increasing, particularly since the onset of the COVID crisis, and governments are under pressure to find...

Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after ...

The dynamics of informal and formal care supply to parents - a structural model

In this paper, we estimate a structural dynamic discrete choice model of informal as well as formal care provision, retirement and labor supply. The model allows to assess the dynamic consequences of providing informal care or organizing formal care for parents, e.g., due to reduced wages, pension benefits, or benefits from long-term care insurance. Further, it allows to analyze counterfactual...

SOEP Annual Report 2020