We investigate how often replication studies are published in empirical economics and what types of journal articles are eventually replicated. We find that from 1974 to 2014 0.10% of publications in the Top 50 economics journals were replications. We take into account the results of replication (negating or reinforcing) and the extent of replication: narrow replication studies are typically devoted ...
The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw a parallel with model uncertainty in the growth literature and provide a new version of the Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates (BAMLE) technique tailored to binary logit models. ...
A European unemployment insurance scheme has gained increased attention as a new and ambitious common fiscal instrument which could be used for temporary cross-country transfers. Part of the national stabilizers composing unemployment insurance schemes would be transferred to the central level. Unemployed are then insured by both layers. When a country is hit by an asymmetric shock, it would receive ...
According to DIW Berlin estimates, the German economy should grow by 1.9 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year. The GDP growth forecast has thus decreased by 0.5 percentage points for this year and by 0.2 percentage points for the coming year compared to DIW Berlin’s March forecast. Essentially, this reflects the markedly increased uncertainty concerning the economic policy environment ...
The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to 4.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. However, global expansion appears to remain intact. In developed economies, primarily the good labor market ...
Compared to last year, the German economy is weakening noticeably. Orders from abroad are decreasing and domestic companies are holding back on investments. However, capacity utilization remains high—also because the government will boost the incomes of private households next year. However, above all, incomes are rising noticeably due to the positive situation in the labor market: the unemployment ...
Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), comments on the latest ECB council meeting as follows:
