Search

Interpersonal Perceptions and Interviewer Effects in Face-to-Face Surveys

It is well known that the presence of an interviewer can affect responses and thereby introduce variance and bias into survey estimates. For instance, some respondents tend to adjust their true answers towards social norms or specific characteristics of the interviewer in order to appear in a good light. When investigating these interviewer effects, survey research mainly focused on interviewer...

German economy on track

DIW Berlin's economic forecast by Ferdinand Fichtner, Guido Baldi, Karl Brenke, Christian Dreger, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Stefan Gebauer, Simon Junker, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak, and Kristina van Deuverden Germany’s economic output is now experiencing significant and steady increases for the fourth year in a row – a trend that will also continue throughout the ...

The world economy and the euro area: Despite risks, global recovery is stabilizing : DIW economic outlook

Global economic output is expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year, and with a slightly stronger dynamic in the coming year; both predictions match the figures proposed in DIW Berlin’s spring forecast, even though the year started off somewhat weaker than expected. But overall, economic recovery continues. Despite rising inflation rates, private consumption remains one of the main drivers in ...

German economy in good shape

The German economy is in the midst of a robust economic cycle: the number of employed persons has reached historic highs and is still increasing powerfully; private household income is on the rise; and the public coffers are overflowing. Inflation is rising only gradually, partly because capacities are not overburdened. The mood is bright among consumers and firms alike, with economic development distributed ...

"Uncertainty remains one of the biggest impediments to global economic development": Eight Questions for Ferdinand Fichtner

Mr. Fichtner, is the German economy still on a path of growth? Yes—in fact, the German economy is developing quite powerfully. Growth in the first half of the year has been respectable, but we are expecting an even more significant expansion in the coming quarters, especially in light of the favorable labor market development.  [...]

German Economy on Track: Editorial

The World Economy and the Euro Area: Despite Risks, Global Recovery Is Stabilizing: DIW Economic Outlook

Global economic output is expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year, and with a slightly stronger dynamic in the coming year; both predictions match the figures proposed in DIW Berlin’s spring forecast, even though the year started off somewhat weaker than expected. But overall, economic recovery continues. Despite rising inflation rates, private consumption remains one of the main drivers in the developed ...

German Economy in Good Shape: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy is in the midst of a robust economic cycle: the number of employed persons has reached historic highs and is still increasing powerfully; private household income is on the rise; and the public coffers are overflowing. Inflation is rising only gradually, partly because capacities are not overburdened. The mood is bright among consumers and firms alike, with economic development distributed ...

Is Market Fear Persistent? A Long-Memory Analysis

This paper investigates the degree of persistence of market fear. Specifically, two different long-memory approaches (R/S analysis with the Hurst exponent method and fractional integration) are used to analyse persistence of the VIX index over the sample period 2004-2016, as well as some sub-periods (pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis). The findings indicate that its properties change over time: in ...

Pension Incentives and Early Retirement

In this paper we exploit a cohort-specific pension reform to estimate the labour market effects of changes in the financial incentives to retire. In particular, we analyse the effects of the introduction of cohort-specific deductions for early retirement on female retirement, employment and unemployment. For the empirical analysis we use high-quality administrative data from the German pension insurance. ...