Empirical research is seeking through methodological processes to discover, hopefully, nontrivial facts and insights. Beside choosing a topic and grounding an idea in theory, empirical research consists of gathering and analysing data as well as presenting results in scientific contexts. Our workshop tackles these steps of your research project: Gathering data via (un)structured interviews and...
Lutz Kilian is going to present his paper "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?" (download below) in conjunction with his second paper, available here. Presentation slides can be downloaded here.
The performance of information criteria and tests for residual heteroskedasticity for choosing between different models for time-varying volatility in the context of structural vector autoregressive analysis is investigated. Although it can be difficult to find the true volatility model with the selection criteria, using them is recommended because they can reduce the mean squared error of impulse ...
Natural gas gained significant attention due to its low carbon emissions and competitive prices in North America relative to other energy sources. The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 projects the U.S. as a net exporter by 2017. Recently, Mexico launched its energy reform, aiming to expand domestic production by opening the market to private investors. The success or failure of these policy changes will ...
This paper complements evidence on the Allais paradox from advanced countries and educated people by a novel investigation in a poor rural area. The share of Allais-type behavior is indeed high and related to indicators of “lacking ability,” such as poor education, unemployment, and little financial sophistication. Based on prospective reference theory, we extend these characteristics by biased processing ...
We employ a structural global VAR model to analyze whether U.S. unconventional monetary policy shocks, identified through changes in the central bank’s balance sheet, have an impact on financial and economic conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs). Moreover, we study whether international capital flows are an important channel of shock transmission. We find that an expansionary policy shock ...
We investigate how worries in Germany change across time and age, drawing on both closed-ended questions (which typically list a number of worry items) and open-ended questions answered in text format. We find that relevant world events influence worries. For example, worries about peace peaked in 2003, the year of the Iraq War, with a considerable number of respondents also referring to the Iraq war ...
