In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov-switching is developed to measure and predict turning points. Both common factors, namely composite leading index (CLI) and composite coincident index (CCI) respectively, have their own cyclical dynamics, and their lead-lag relationships are reflected in the transition probabilities matrix. The model is applied to four coincident and four selected ...
The decline in output volatility in Germany is analysed. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the decline output volatility is due to a decline in the persistence of the growth process. This is in contrast ...
A comparison of women's and men's economic relations in the former East and West Germany (in this paper henceforth referred to as East and West Germany) in the years following reunification in 1990 is used to exemplify the differential impact of varying opportunity structures on the extent of and change in women's relative contribution to family income. East Germany represents a special case among ...
