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Our Study Shows That the ECB's Measures Have Been Effective: Seven Questions to Malte Rieth

Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?

We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. By contrast, economic indicators work well only until the 1970s, but thereafter they lose predictive power, even when the last crisis is considered. Translating ...

North American Natural Gas Model Impact of Cross-Border Trade with Mexico

Natural gas as a source of energy has attracted a lot of interest as its emissions rate and price are lower than other fossil fuel energy sources. In the U.S., natural gas-fired power generation has been rising, as coal has declined as a share of the fuel mix. Likewise, Mexico recently launched its energy reform with focus on greatly expanding use of natural gas over other fossil fuels, primarily in ...

The State Dependent Impact of Bank Exposure on Sovereign Risk

The theoretical literature remains inconclusive on whether changes in bank exposure towards the domestic sovereign have an adverse effect on the sovereign risk position via a diabolic loop in the sovereign-bank nexus or reduce perceived default risk by acting as a disciplinary device for the sovereign. In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of exogenous changes in bank exposure on the risk ...

ECB’s Policy Measures Stimulate the Economy - Long-term Effects on Wealth Inequality Unclear

European Central Bank (ECB) supports prices, economic activity, and inflation expectations through unconventional measures both in the euro area as a whole and in Germany - but the measures are likely to raise wealth inequality in the short termThe ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy aimed at easing the financial and debt crisis is making an impact. Prices and GDP have been shored up and inflation ...

"Wealth Inequality Set to Increase in the Short Term": Eight Questions to Kerstin Bernoth

Prof. Bernoth, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to implement a large-scale bond purchasing program in January 2015 to avert the risk of deflation in the euro area. To what extent might these bond purchases also affect wealth distribution? Considerable wealth distribution effects may occur through the impact channels of monetary policy because interest rate changes introduced by the central ...

A Decomposition Analysis of Cigarette Consumption Differences between Male Turkish Immigrants and Germans in West Germany 2002-2012

In this article, we investigate the differences in smoking behavior between male Turkish immigrants and male Germans, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). More specifically, we use a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition method for count data models, and isolate differences in the number of cigarettes consumed daily between Turkish immigrants and Germans into a component reflecting differences ...

Does Parental Unemployment Affect the Quality of Their Children's First Job?

In this paper the relationship between parental unemployment at time of children's labor market entrance on the quality of their children's first job is analyzed. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for the years 1991-2012 the quality of the first job in terms of wage, permanent position and full-time employment is examined. The results show a negative correlation between fathers' ...

The Integration of International Financial Markets: An Attempt to Quantify Contagion in an Input-Output-Type Analysis

The increasing integration of international financial markets means that credit defaults in one country have to be covered by creditors in other countries. If the principle of creditor liability were applied systematically, the financial losses incurred by the financial institution that provided the credit and is thus directly affected by the default would be “passed on” through its domestic and foreign ...

Asian Development Outlook 2016

Presentation of the Asian Development Outlook 2016 by Juzhong Zhuang, Deputy Chief Economist of ADB. Juzhong Zhuang joined the ADB in 1997, and currently works in the Economics and Research Department. His division produces policy research on long-term development issues facing Asia and the Pacific and supports ADB’s operations to strengthen the economic rationale of its lending and non...