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The Link between R&D, Innovation and Productivity: Are Micro Firms Different?

We analyze the link between R&D, innovation, and productivity in MSMEs with a special focus on micro firms with fewer than 10 employees; usually constituting the majority of firms in industrialized economies. Using the German KfW SME panel, we examine to what extent micro firms are different from other firms in terms of innovativeness. We find that while firms engage in innovative activities with smaller ...

ECB Asset Purchases May Affect Wealth Distribution

In the debate on monetary policy decisions, to date, little attention has been paid to distributional effects. One reason for this is that they are not included in the mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB). Given the loose monetary policy stance in the euro area and the large-scale program to purchase government and corporate bonds launched in January 2015, the question increasingly being asked ...

Wealth Inequality Set to Increase in the Short Term: Eight Questions to Kerstin Bernoth

ECB Policies Effective in the Euro Area and Germany

The European Central Bank has engaged in a wide range of nonstandard monetary policy measures since 2007. Each new tool was accompanied by an intense public debate on its effectiveness. This study evaluates the average effect of these measures on the macro-economy. The estimates show that unexpected changes in monetary policy that lower euro-area sovereign bond yields lead to a significant rise in ...

Our Study Shows That the ECB's Measures Have Been Effective: Seven Questions to Malte Rieth

Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?

We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. By contrast, economic indicators work well only until the 1970s, but thereafter they lose predictive power, even when the last crisis is considered. Translating ...

North American Natural Gas Model Impact of Cross-Border Trade with Mexico

Natural gas as a source of energy has attracted a lot of interest as its emissions rate and price are lower than other fossil fuel energy sources. In the U.S., natural gas-fired power generation has been rising, as coal has declined as a share of the fuel mix. Likewise, Mexico recently launched its energy reform with focus on greatly expanding use of natural gas over other fossil fuels, primarily in ...

The State Dependent Impact of Bank Exposure on Sovereign Risk

The theoretical literature remains inconclusive on whether changes in bank exposure towards the domestic sovereign have an adverse effect on the sovereign risk position via a diabolic loop in the sovereign-bank nexus or reduce perceived default risk by acting as a disciplinary device for the sovereign. In this paper we empirically analyze the impact of exogenous changes in bank exposure on the risk ...

ECB’s Policy Measures Stimulate the Economy - Long-term Effects on Wealth Inequality Unclear

European Central Bank (ECB) supports prices, economic activity, and inflation expectations through unconventional measures both in the euro area as a whole and in Germany - but the measures are likely to raise wealth inequality in the short termThe ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy aimed at easing the financial and debt crisis is making an impact. Prices and GDP have been shored up and inflation ...

"Wealth Inequality Set to Increase in the Short Term": Eight Questions to Kerstin Bernoth

Prof. Bernoth, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to implement a large-scale bond purchasing program in January 2015 to avert the risk of deflation in the euro area. To what extent might these bond purchases also affect wealth distribution? Considerable wealth distribution effects may occur through the impact channels of monetary policy because interest rate changes introduced by the central ...