The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models is employed in a multi-country set up and approximately 42 Mio. pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts of GDP are ...
In this paper we explore the reasons for the trend reversal in the development of household market income inequality in Germany in the second half of the 2000s. We analyse to what extent the increasing relevance of capital income as well as the rising share of atypically employed persons have affected the development of income inequality over the last two decades. We use household data from the German ...
Using both household and linked employer-employee data for Germany, we assess the effects of non-union representation in the form of works councils on (1) individual sickness absence rates and (2) a subjective measure of personnel problems due to sickness absence as perceived by a firm's management. We find that the existence of a works council is positively correlated with the incidence and the annual ...
The international climate negotiations are approaching another deadline: 2015 in Paris at the COP 21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change a new climate agreement is to be launched. The need for action on emissions reduction is obvious and has been highlighted repeatedly. We will present results from two studies focusing on global pathways, first mover advantages, and costs...
Motivated by Manski and Tamer (2002) and especially their partial identification analysis of the regression model where one covariate is only interval-measured, we present two extensions. Manski and Tamer (2002) propose two estimation approaches in this context, focussing on general results. The modified minimum distance (MMD) estimates the true identified set and the modified method of moments (MMM) ...
A shift from zonal pricing to smaller zones and nodal pricing improves efficiency and security of system operation. Resulting price changes do however also shift profits and surplus between and across generation and load. As individual actorscan lose, they might oppose any reform. We explore how free allocation of financial transmission rights to generation and load can be used to mitigate the distributional ...
