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Selected Publications in Print and Online Media, 2013

Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performances of a broad monetary aggregate (M3), excess liquidity and excess inflation in predicting euro area inflation. The out-of sample forecasting performances are compared to a widely used alternative, the spread of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand, even when observations ...

A Minimum Wage for Germany: What Should We Expect?

A key component of the coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and SPD signed on November 27 is the adoption of a minimum wage for Germany. Under the agreement, a statutory minimum wage of €8.50 per hour will be introduced across the country starting in 2017. Pushed as a make-or-break issue by the SPD during the negotiations, its introductionfollows months of heated debate about its desirability and ...

A Post-2020 EU Energy Technology Policy: Revisiting the Strategic Energy Technology Plan

With the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET Plan) expiring in 2020, the EU needs to revisit its energy technology policy for the post-2020 horizon and to establish a policy framework that fosters the achievement of ambitious EU commitments for decarbonization by 2050. We discuss options for a post-2020 EU energy technology policy, taking account of uncertain technology developments, uncertain ...

Practical Tools for DSGE Modelling

21.03. 15:00-18:30, Dulles room (5.2.010)24.03. 09:00-12:30,Schmoller (1.2.026)

Business Confidence and Forecasting of Housing Prices and Rents in Large German Cities

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. Above all, we are interested in whether the local business confidence indicators can allow substantially improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample ...

The Cyclicality of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: What Can Real-Time Data Tell Us?

This paper develops a new methodology for estimating both the automatic and discretionary components of fiscal policy in one reaction function using the differences between real-time and ex post data. Discretionary policy should respond to information available to the policy maker at the time (real-time data), whereas automatic fiscal policy should respond to the true state of the economy at the time ...

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Equity Investment: A European Comparison

A strong private equity (PE) market is a cornerstone for commercialization and innovation in modern economies. However, substantial differences exist in the relative amounts raised and invested in PE across European countries. We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of PE investment in Europe, focusing on the comparison between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. ...

Coworkers, Networks, and Job Search Outcomes

BAMS is a joint seminar by the DIW Berlin, the Hertie School of Governance, the HU Berlin and the WZB.

Door Opener or Waste of Time? The Effects of Internships on Labor Market Outcomes

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of internships while enrolled at university on labor market choices and wages later in life. We use variation in the introduction and abolishment of mandatory internships at German universities in the wake of the Bologna reform as an instrument for doing an internship.