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Refereed essays Web of Science
The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models is employed in a multi-country set up and approximately 42 million pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts of GDP ...
In:
Economics Letters
126 (2015), S. 40-42
| Johannes Mayr, Dirk Ulbricht
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Despite numerous studies on skill development, we know little about the effects of extracurricular music activities on cognitive and non-cognitive skills. This study examines how music training during childhood and youth affects the development of cognitive skills, school grades, personality, time use and ambition using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Our findings suggest that adolescents ...
In:
Economics of Education Review
44 (2015), S. 56–82
| Adrian Hille, Jürgen Schupp
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This article analyzes the coordination of congestion management in the electricity grid and identifies the benefits from closer cooperation among Transmission System Operators. Mimicking the German situation with four Transmission System Operators in charge of relieving grid congestion, in particular by redispatch of power plants, we set up a model with shared transmission network constraints. Through ...
In:
Utilities Policy
37 (2015), S. 34-45
| Friedrich Kunz, Alexander Zerrahn
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Refereed essays Web of Science
DSM (demand-side management) merits increased attention by power system modelers. Numerical models should incorporate DSM constraints in a complete and consistent way. Otherwise, flawed DSM patterns and distorted conclusions on the system benefits of demand-side management are inevitable. Building on a model formulation put forward by Göransson et al. (2014), it is first suggested to include an additional ...
In:
Energy
84 (2015), S. 840-845
| Alexander Zerrahn, Wolf-Peter Schill
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The scapegoat theory of exchange rates (2 and 5) suggests that market participants may attach excessive weight to individual economic fundamentals, which are picked as “scapegoats” to rationalize observed currency fluctuations at times when exchange rates are driven by unobservable shocks. Using novel survey data that directly measure foreign exchange scapegoats for 12 exchange rates, we find empirical ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
70 (2015), 1-21
| Marcel Fratzscher, Dagfinn Rime, Lucio Sarno, Gabriele Zinna
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Excessive alcohol consumption among young people is a major public health concern. On March 1, 2010, the German state of Baden-Württemberg banned the sale of alcoholic beverages between 10 pm and 5 am at off-premise outlets (e.g., gas stations, kiosks, supermarkets). We use rich monthly administrative data from a 70% random sample of all hospitalizations during the years 2007–2011 in Germany in order ...
In:
Journal of Public Economics
123 (2015), S. 55-77
| Jan Marcus, Thomas Siedler
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The 2014 Russian–Ukrainian crisis reignited European concerns about natural gas supply security recalling the experiences of 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed, with better diversified import sources, EU member states being better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, European dependency ...
In:
Energy Policy
80 (2015), S. 177-189
| Philipp M. Richter, Franziska Holz
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We re-examine the dynamic relations between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals for six major industrialized countries in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Our analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, which relies on a long-run restriction to identify fundamental and non-fundamental shocks to stock prices. This paper is the first in this line of literature ...
In:
Journal of Economics and Business
80 (2015), S. 1-20
| Anton Velinov, Wenjuan Chen
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Parental leave and subsidized child care are prominent examples of family policies supporting the reconciliation of family life and labor market careers for mothers. In this paper, we combine different empirical strategies to evaluate the employment effects of these policies for mothers with young children. In particular we estimate a structural labor supply model and exploit quasi-experimental variation ...
In:
Labour Economics
36 (2015), S. 84-98
| Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan, Katharina Wrohlich
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Whilst congestion in automobile traffic increases trip durations, this is often not the case in rail-based public transport where congestion rather leads to in-vehicle crowding, often neglected in empirical studies. Using original survey data from Paris, this article assesses the distribution of comfort costs of congestion in public transport. Estimating willingness to pay for less crowded trips at ...
In:
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
77 (2015), 182-201
| Luke Haywood, Martin Koning