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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper analyzes the determinants of German exports to the euro area, which is the biggest market for German products. Three conditional error-correction models based on regionally disaggregated data are developed. One specification includes EMU industrial production and a real external value based on consumer prices, the other two use different EMU investment aggregates, the orresponding real external ...
In:
Empirical Economics
31 (2006), 4, S. 871-882
| Sabine Stephan
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In this article, we analyse the effects of emissions trading in Europe, with special reference to Germany. We look at the value of the flexibility gained by trading compared to fixed quotas. The analysis is undertaken with a modified version of the GTAP-E model using the latest GTAP version 6 database. It is based on the national allocation plans (NAP) as submitted to and approved by the EU. We find ...
In:
Climate Policy
6 (2006), 4, S. 441-455
| Claudia Kemfert, Michael Kohlhaas, Truong P. Truong, Artem Protsenko
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Refereed essays Web of Science
As a dependent variable, party choice did not lend itself to analysis by means of powerful multivariate methods until the coming of discrete-choice models, most notably conditional logit and multinomial logit. These methods involve estimating effects on party preferences (utilities) that are post hoc derived from the data, but such estimates are plagued by a number of difficulties. These difficulties ...
In:
Electoral Studies
25 (2006), 3, S. 424-447
| Cees van der Eijk, Wouter van der Brug, Martin Kroh, Mark Franklin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly - but not strongly - efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by ...
In:
Empirical Economics
31 (2006), 3, S. 777-798
| Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time-series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, several ...
In:
The Developing Economies
44 (2006), 3, S. 306-28
| Boriss Siliverstovs, Dierk Herzer, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D.
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample ...
In:
Empirical Economics
31 (2006), 3, S. 735-754
| Boriss Siliverstovs, Herbert Brücker
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In this paper we perform a comparative study of the forecasting properties of the about 30 alternative leading indicators for Germany using the growth rates of German real GDP. In addition to them, we have constructed a diffusion index based on the principal component analysis and including 145 component series that reflect all the facets of German economy. We use the post-unification data which cover ...
In:
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik
226 (2006), 3, S. 234-259
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Boriss Silverstovs
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We provide an axiomatization of Yitzhaki's index of individual deprivation. Our result differs from an earlier characterization due to Ebert and Moyes in the way the reference group of an individual is represented in the model.
In:
Economics Letters
90 (2006), 3, S. 421-426
| Walter Bossert, Conchita D'Ambrosio
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The concept of anomie is one of the classics of sociological theory. Developed by scholars such as Emile Durkheim and Robert K. Merton, the concept refers to the absence of clear social norms and values and to a lack of sense of social regulation. However, whereas Merton focused on features of relative deprivation that cause anomie, Durkheim was primarily interested in the link between rapid social ...
In:
Social Indicators Research
76 (2006), 3, S. 467-498
| Denis Huschka, Steffen Mau
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper uses a state of the art three-stage estimation technique to identify the determinants of the self-employed immigrant and native men in Germany. Their making is surprisingly alike. Employing data from the German Socioeconomic Panel 2000 (GSOEP) release we find that self-employment is not significantly affected by exposure to Germany or by human capital. But this choice has a very strong intergenerational ...
In:
Small Business Economics
26 (2006), 3, S. 279-300
| Amelie Constant, Klaus F. Zimmermann