Macroeconomics Department Publications

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  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Social Policy or Crowding-out? Tenant Protection in Comparative Long-run Perspective

    Private rental markets have become increasingly important since the Global Financial Crisis 2008–2009 and rent controls are back on the political agenda. Yet, they have received less attention from housing scholars than homeownership and public housing. This paper presents new data on the development of private tenancy legislation based on a content-coding of rent control, protection of tenants from ...

    In: Housing Studies 38 (2023), 4, S. 707-743 | Sebastian Kohl, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    The Multifaceted Impact of US Trade Policy on Financial Markets

    We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. ...

    In: Journal of Applied Econometrics 38 (2023), 3, S. 388-406 | Lukas Boer, Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Rent Price Control – Yet Another Great Equalizer of Economic Inequalities? Evidence from a Century of Historical Data

    The long-run U-shaped patterns of economic inequality are standardly explained by basic economic trends (Piketty’s r > g), taxation policies or ‘great levellers’ such as catastrophes. This article argues that housing policy, and particularly rent control, is a neglected explanatory factor in understanding macro inequality. We hypothesize that rent control could decrease overall housing wealth, lower ...

    In: Journal of European Social Policy 33 (2023), 2, S. 169–184 | Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Selective Bond Purchases – May the ECB Chose Winners and Losers?

    The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently facing major challenges. Fragmentation of government bond yields across Member States of the European Economic and Monetary Union, based on different economic and fiscal policies, hampers a uniform transmission of monetary policy. At the same time, climate-related financial risks need to be addressed. In recent years, the ECB is meeting these challenges ...

    In: The Economists' Voice 20 (2023), 1, S. 111-118 | Kerstin Bernoth, Sara Dietz
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Monetary Policy, External Instruments, and Heteroskedasticity

    We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the ...

    In: Quantitative Economics 14 (2023), 1, S. 161-200 | Thore Schlaak, Malte Rieth, Maximilian Podstawski
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    The Hidden Homeownership Welfare State: An International Long-term Perspective on the Tax Treatment of Homeowners

    Welfare is traditionally understood as social security decommodifying labour markets or as social investment policies. In the domain of housing, however, welfare for homeowners is largely hidden in the tax codes’ fiscal exemptions. Based on a content analysis of legislation, this article introduces a novel yearly database of 37 countries between 1901 and 2020 to uncover the “hidden welfare state” of ...

    In: Journal of Public Policy 43 (2023), 1, S. 86–114 | Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, Artem Korzhenevych, Linus Pfeiffer
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Mass Vaccination and Educational Attainment: Evidence from the 1967–68 Measles Eradication Campaign

    We show that the first nationwide mass vaccination campaign against measles increased educational attainment in the United States. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in exposure to the childhood disease across states right before the Measles Eradication Campaign of 1967–68, which reduced reported measles incidence by 90 percent within two years. Our results suggest that mass vaccination against ...

    In: Journal of Health Economics 92 (2023), 102828, 21 S. | Philipp Barteska, Sonja Dobkowitz, Maarit Olkkola, Michael Rieser
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Accounting for Pension Wealth, the Missing Rich and Under-coverage: A Comprehensive Wealth Distribution for Germany

    This study constructs a comprehensive wealth distribution for Germany to inform debate in Germany and internationally on the distribution of wealth including pension entitlements. We estimate the net present value of pension wealth in Germany in 2012 and 2017 using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data. When including pension wealth, German households’ wealth-income ratio increases from 570% to 850% in ...

    In: Economics Letters 231 (2023), 111299, 5 S. | Charlotte Bartels, Timm Bönke, Rick Glaubitz, Markus M. Grabka, Carsten Schröder
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    The Signalling Channel of Negative Interest Rates

    Negative policy rates can convince markets that deposit rates will remain lower-for-longer, even when current deposit rates are constrained by zero. This is the signalling channel of negative interest rates. We analyse the optimality and effectiveness of negative rates in the context of this novel transmission channel. In a stylized model, we prove two necessary conditions for optimality: time-consistency ...

    In: Journal of Monetary Economics 138 (2023), S. 87-103 | Oliver de Groot, Alexander Haas
  • Refereed essays Web of Science

    Viral Shocks to the World Economy

    We construct a global index of epidemic news based on text analysis of newspapers from 17 countries. We apply the index to study the economic consequences of epidemics on the world economy in structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks exert significantly and persistently negative effects on output and prices that last for up to two years. There is no quick recovery and no overshooting. The ...

    In: European Economic Review 158 (2023), 104526, 15 S. | Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Malte Rieth
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