Macroeconomics Department Publications

Coronavirus Causing Major Economic Shock to the Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production losses and falls in consumption. The global economy is expected to grow by as little as 2.5 percent this year instead of by the 3.7 percent forecasted previously. ...

German Economy in Recession: Bridging Pinch Points, Building Confidence, Boosting Demand: Editorial

Financial Stability: New, Detailed Datasets Allow for Innovation of Stress Tests

The 2008-2010 crisis has shown that authorities were missing crucial information necessary to identify risks to the financial system in an accurate and timely manner. To be prepared for future crises, a range of legislation in Europe and beyond was passed. The scope and depth of information being reported from across the financial system, including previously disregarded segments, have thus significantly ...

German Economy: Industry Struggles to Shake of the Crisis: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the recession in the industry will affect the service sector and construction industry. These sectors are profiting ...

Global Economy Continues to Suffer Weak Growth Momentum: DIW Economic Outlook

Favorable labor market conditions and the resulting increase in private consumption are still sustaining the global economy. Trade disputes and political uncertainties, however, continue to slow investment activity, with the result that economic growth will only be moderate particularly in advanced economies. By contrast, growth is accelerating in emerging markets, especially in India. Global economic ...

Strengthen the Foundation of the German Economy: Editorial

Monetary Policy Can Have Heterogeneous Effects on the Investment Behavior of Women and Men

The ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years has raised concerns that the low interest rate environment may overly benefit households with specific demographic and financial characteristics. In this context, monetary policy can be a potential driver of gender wealth inequality, since women are known to be more risk averse, less financially literate, and to participate less in the financial markets ...

Housing Market Regulation Has Contributed to the Worldwide Triumph of Home Ownership

The present report presents new historical data based on country comparisons and research results regarding rent control and its long-term effect on the home ownership rate in 27 countries. Policy measures of rent control, protection against eviction, and housing space management have been widespread in most of the countries studied—particularly in continental Europe—in the past 100 years. At the same ...

German Economy: A Recession Is Not Automatically a Crisis: DIW Economic Outlook

The slowdown in the global economy and the uncertainties caused by Brexit have affected the export-oriented German economy, which is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent this year. However, the German economy has not slid into a crisis due to marked fiscal policy stimuli and favorable developments on the labor market. Private consumption remains a mainstay of the economy; in addition, there is moderate ...

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighing on World Trade and Industry: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the economy in many countries. DIW Berlin is expecting global GDP to grow to 3.7 percent this year and to slightly ...