Macroeconomics Department Publications

Unemployment and Business Cycles

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium search and matching model that accounts for key business cycle properties of macroeconomic aggregates, including labor market variables. In sharp contrast to leading New Keynesian models, we do not impose wage inertia. Instead we derive wage inertia from our specification of how firms and workers negotiate wages. Our model outperforms a variant of the standard ...

War, Housing Rents, and Free Market: A Case of Berlin's Rental Housing Market during World War I

New archival evidence on housing rents in Berlin over 1909–1917 is presented. The data are extracted from newspaper announcements and georeferenced. Using hedonic regressions, quality-adjusted rent indices are constructed and employed to analyze the rental dynamics during World War I, when housing market experienced several shocks. The outbreak of the war led to an outflow of men from cities. Toward ...

Institutional Determinants of Financial Development in MENA Countries

Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Panel-econometric ...

Personal Income Tax Progressivity and Output Volatility: Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper investigates empirically the effect of personal income tax progressivity on output volatility using macro data from a sample of OECD countries over the period 1982–2009. Our measure of progressivity is based on the difference between the marginal and the average personal income tax rate for the average production worker. We find supportive empirical evidence for the hypothesis that higher ...

Between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Prices on Russia's Ruble

Rules versus Human Beings, and the Mandate of the ECB

The actions by the European Central Bank (ECB) during the global and European crises have triggered a highly controversial debate, in particular in Germany, about the costs and benefits of the chosen policy path. The article reviews, compares, and evaluates the different arguments made in favor and against ECB policies around three key dimensions—the link of the policy path to price stability, financial ...

On the Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique: The Case of Euro Area Money Demand

This paper examines the relevance of the Lucas critique for euro area money demand. Based on the money in the utility function approach, a vector error correction model is specified to investigate the relationship between money and inflation in times of policy shifts. A well defined equation for money demand is obtained. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand. ...

Credit Rating Agency Downgrades and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crises

This paper studies the reaction of the Euro's value against major currencies to sovereign rating announcements from Moody's, S&P and Fitch CRAs during the Eurozone debt crisis in 2010–2012 based on event study methodology combined with GARCH models. We also analyze how the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish government long-term bonds were affected by CRA announcements. Our results reveal ...

Bubble Thy Neighbour: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls

We use changes in Brazil's tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2013 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. We find that an increase in Brazil's tax on foreign investment in bonds causes fund managers to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Fund managers simultaneously increase allocations ...

Credit Provision and Banking Stability after the Great Financial Crisis: The Role of Bank Regulation and the Quality of Governance

In response to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), bank regulatory regimes were tightened world-wide to strengthen banking stability and the resilience of the banking sectors. Yet, it is often claimed that regulatory tightening may lead banks to cut back on lending and comes at the cost of a lower loan supply. The present paper uses a country panel for 50 advanced and emerging market economies to analyze ...