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Refereed essays Web of Science
The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models is employed in a multi-country set up and approximately 42 million pseudo-out-of-sample forecasts of GDP ...
In:
Economics Letters
126 (2015), S. 40-42
| Johannes Mayr, Dirk Ulbricht
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This study assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar by testing what we call China's ‘dominance hypothesis’, i.e. whether the renminbi already influences exchange rate and monetary policies strongly in Asia, a direct reference to the old ‘German dominance hypothesis’ which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s. Using a global factor model of ...
In:
The Economic Journal
124 (2014), Iss. 581, S. 1343-1370
| Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud Mehl
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Central banks regularly communicate about financial stability issues. This article asks how such communications affect financial markets, based on a unique dataset covering more than 1,000 releases of Financial Stability Reports (FSRs) and speeches by 37 central banks over the past 14 years. The findings suggest that optimistic FSRs lead to significant and potentially long-lasting positive abnormal ...
In:
The Economic Journal
124 (2014), 577, S. 701-734
| Benjamin Born, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Despite high economic growth during the past decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies strongly influence Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function, this article examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted ...
In:
Applied Economics
46 (2014), 35, S. 4302-4308
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
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Refereed essays Web of Science
A strong private equity (PE) market is a cornerstone for commercialization and innovation in modern economies. However, substantial differences exist in the relative amounts raised and invested in PE across European countries. We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of PE investment in Europe, focusing on the comparison between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. ...
In:
Applied Economics
46 (2014),11, S. 1170-1183
| Kerstin Bernoth, Roberta Colavecchio
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We analyze the transmission of the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis to 415 country-industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative ofcontagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the United States and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been ...
In:
The Journal of Finance
69 (2014), No.6, S. 2597-2649
| Geert Bekaert, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud Mehl
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to break down south-north migration along both the skill and the occupational dimension and thus to distinguish and compare several types of south-north migration and brain drain. Design/methodology/approach: This paper presents south-north migration rates by occupational category at two distinct levels of disaggregation according to International Standard Classification ...
In:
International Journal of Manpower
35 (2014), 6, S. 834-872
| Nina Neubecker
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Refereed essays Web of Science
A Neoclassical production function is used to analyse the effects of knowledge spillovers via entrepreneurship on economic performance of 337 German districts. To take the spatial dependence structure of the data into account, a spatial Durbin model was estimated. The importance of the choice of the appropriate weight matrix is highlighted. Positive knowledge spillover effects via entrepreneurship ...
In:
Regional Studies
48 (2014), 5, S. 866-882
| Katharina Pijnenburg, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are usually discussed in the context of reducing structural unemployment rates, especially among the young. Related to this, the long-run benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are extensively analyzed in the literature. However, empirical evidence regarding the short-run effects of the business cycle on the number of apprenticeships is scarce. In this ...
In:
Journal of Labor Research
35 (2014), Iss. 4, 412-422
| Guido Baldi, Imke Brüggemann-Borck, Thore Schlaak
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Refereed essays Web of Science
According to the literature on traditional banking, lenders often discriminate against female borrowers. However, studies of Peer-to-Peer lending in the United States find that female borrowers have better chances of obtaining funds than do males. We provide evidence on the success of female borrowers at a large German peer-to-peer lending platform. Our results show that there is no effect of gender ...
In:
German Economic Review
15 (2014), 4, S. 436-452
| Nataliya Barasinska, Dorothea Schäfer