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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...
In:
IMF Economic Review
69 (2021), 2, S. 391–426
| Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It was published first time in 2012 by the European Commission as a reaction to public debt crises in Europe. So far, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure takes a one-size-fits-all approach with regard to the identification of thresholds. The experience of Central and Eastern ...
In:
Empirica
48 (2021), 1, S. 123–139
| Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Martina Kämpfe, Tobias Knedlik
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Research background: We are guided by concepts linking political trust with the perceived rank of people in the wealth hierarchy, their confidence in other people, and the means they use to learn about events at home and abroad.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to assess and analyse at the micro level the impact of subjective welfare, interpersonal trust and the intensity of usage of ...
In:
Oeconomia Copernicana
12 (2021), 1, S. 77-98
| Marina Yu. Malkina, Vyacheslav N. Ovchinnikov, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper analyzes the effects of bank capital regulation on the link between bank size and volatility. Using bank-level data for 27 advanced economies over the 2000–2014 period, we estimate a power law that relates the volume of a bank’s loan portfolio to the volatility of loan growth. Our analysis reveals, first, that more stringent capital regulation weakens the size-volatility nexus. Hence, in ...
In:
Journal of Banking & Finance
127 (2021), 106122, 15 S.
| Franziska Bremus, Melina Ludolph
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This article studies housing rents in St. Petersburg from 1880 to 1917, covering an eventful period of Russian and world history. Digitizing over 5000 rental advertisements, we construct a state-of-the-art index – the first pre-war and pre-Soviet market data index for any Russian city. In 1915, a rent control and tenant protection policy was introduced in response to soaring prices following the outbreak ...
In:
Explorations in Economic History
81 (2021), 101398, 30 S.
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Leonid E. Limonov, Sofie R. Waltl
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) and conditional on data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data-based identification approach of the structural shocks that allows to account for the complex interrelations within the triad of exchange rates, ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
117 (2021), 102454
| Kerstin Bernoth, Helmut Herwatz
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study the state-dependent trading behavior of financial institutions in the oil futures market, using structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching in heteroskedasticity. We consider two states of the world: tranquil and turbulent. We decompose the observable time-varying price volatility during the period 2006M6–2016M5 into changes in the slopes of traders’ demand curves and into changes ...
In:
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
191 (2021), S. 1011-1024
| Daniel Bierbaumer, Malte Rieth, Anton Velinov
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...
In:
Journal of Public Economics
203 (2021), 104513, 18 S.
| Jan Philipp Fritsche, Mathias Klein, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
A relative uniformity of population distribution on the territory of the country is of importance from socio-economic and strategic perspectives. It is especially important in the case of Russia with its densely populated West and underpopulated East. This paper considers changes in population density in Russian regions, which occurred between 1897 and 2017. It explores whether there was convergence ...
In:
Voprosy ėkonomiki : ežemesjačnyj žurnal
(2020), 11, S. 133-158
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This study introduces a new international longitudinal database of governmental rental market regulations. The regulations are measured using binary variables based on a thorough analysis of real-time, country-specific legislation. Three major restrictive policies are considered: rent control, protection from restriction, and housing rationing. The database covers 101 countries and states between 1910 ...
In:
Housing Policy Debate
30 (2020), 6, S. 994-1015
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin