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Refereed essays Web of Science
We estimate the effect of government spending shocks on the U.S. economy with a time‐varying parameter vector autoregression. The recent Great Recession period appears to be characterized by uniquely large impulse responses of output to fiscal shocks. Moreover, the particularity of this period is underlined by highly unusual responses of several other variables. The pattern of fiscal shock responses ...
In:
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
51 (2019), 5, S. 1237-1264
| Mathias Klein, Ludger Linnemann
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The article analyses the empirical relationship between bank credit risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area, using a system of simultaneous equations identified through heteroskedasticity. We first confirm a two-way causality between both risks, which amplifies initial credit risk shocks. We also document significant credit risk spillovers between sovereigns and banks in the periphery and the ...
In:
Review of Finance
23 (2019), 4, S. 745-775
| Marcel Fratzscher, Malte Rieth
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth ...
In:
The World Economy
42 (2019), 1, S. 122-142
| Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger, Irina Dubova
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led Western countries and Russia to impose economic sanctions on each other, including the euro zone members. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of sanctions are analyzed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the effect we are interested ...
In:
Baltic Journal of Economics
19 (2019), 1, S. 39-51
| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Aleksei Netsunajev
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. ...
In:
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
11 (2019), 1, S. 132-156
| Marcel Fratzscher, Oliver Gloede, Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Tobias Stöhr
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Refereed essays Web of Science
In this study, we determine the reliability and exogeneity of four popular monetary policy shock measures, namely the narrative series of Romer and Romer (2004), the high-frequency series of Barakchian and Crowe (2013), the high-frequency series of Gertler and Karadi (2015), and the hybrid series of Miranda-Agrippino and Ricco (2018b). To this end, we employ the Proxy-SVAR model and different empirical ...
In:
Economics Letters
184 (2019), 108640, 5 S.
| Stephanie Ettmeier, Alexander Kriwoluzky
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study a sovereign debt crisis in a small member state of a currency union. If the country exits the currency union, it may redenominate its liabilities and reduce the real value of debt through depreciation and inflation. We analyze formally how the anticipation of this possibility, “exit expectations”, impact the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis. First, we show that public debt accumulates ...
In:
Journal of International Economics
121 (2019), 103253, 13 S.
| Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Martin Wolf
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Using panel data of 17 OECD countries for 1980–2011, we find that the distributional consequences of fiscal consolidations depend significantly on the level of private indebtedness. Austerity leads to a strong and persistent increase in income inequality during periods of private debt overhang. In contrast, there are no discernible distributional effects when private debt is low. This result is robust ...
In:
European Journal of Political Economy
57 (2019), S. 89-106
| Mathias Klein, Roland Winkler
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Refereed essays Web of Science
Minimum prices above the competitive level can lead to allocative inefficiencies. We investigate whether this effect is more pronounced when decision makers are influenced by their social environment. Using data of minimum prices for renewable energy production in Germany, we test if individual decisions to install photovoltaic systems are affected by the investment decisions of others in the area. ...
In:
Energy Economics
78 (2019), S. 350-364
| Justus Inhoffen, Christoph Siemroth, Philipp Zahn
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We are very grateful to two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this article. We are also grateful to seminar participants at the Bank of Italy, Free University of Berlin, University of Naples, Humboldt University of Berlin, IAAE 2016 (Milan), 7th Ifo Conference 2016 (Munich) and EEA 2016 (Geneva), as well as to Rudi Bachmann, Christoph Große Steffen, Michael ...
In:
The Economic Journal ; 128, 616
128 (2018), 616, S. 3266-3284
| Michele Piffer, Maximilian Podstawski