Macroeconomics Department Publications

Price Stability and Climate Risks: Sensible Measures for the European Central Bank

By the end of 2020, the European Central Bank (ECB) will present the results of its monetary policy strategy review. What changes are to be expected and what changes are needed? This report covers two areas of the strategy review. First, alternatives to the current definition of price stability are discussed. Current studies and the practices of other central banks indicate that supplementing the ...

Coronavirus Plunges the German Economy into Recession: DIW Economic Outlook

The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. Compounded by the lack of quality data, model uncertainty, and uncertainty over government responses, economic forecasts are subject to even greater uncertainty than usual. It is difficult to predict how the pandemic will progress. Figures on the impact of the virus, obtained by comparing it with previous epidemics, ...

Coronavirus Causing Major Economic Shock to the Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production losses and falls in consumption. The global economy is expected to grow by as little as 2.5 percent this year instead of by the 3.7 percent forecasted previously. ...

German Economy in Recession: Bridging Pinch Points, Building Confidence, Boosting Demand: Editorial

Financial Stability: New, Detailed Datasets Allow for Innovation of Stress Tests

The 2008-2010 crisis has shown that authorities were missing crucial information necessary to identify risks to the financial system in an accurate and timely manner. To be prepared for future crises, a range of legislation in Europe and beyond was passed. The scope and depth of information being reported from across the financial system, including previously disregarded segments, have thus significantly ...

German Economy: Industry Struggles to Shake of the Crisis: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the recession in the industry will affect the service sector and construction industry. These sectors are profiting ...

Global Economy Continues to Suffer Weak Growth Momentum: DIW Economic Outlook

Favorable labor market conditions and the resulting increase in private consumption are still sustaining the global economy. Trade disputes and political uncertainties, however, continue to slow investment activity, with the result that economic growth will only be moderate particularly in advanced economies. By contrast, growth is accelerating in emerging markets, especially in India. Global economic ...

Strengthen the Foundation of the German Economy: Editorial

Monetary Policy Can Have Heterogeneous Effects on the Investment Behavior of Women and Men

The ultra-loose monetary policy of recent years has raised concerns that the low interest rate environment may overly benefit households with specific demographic and financial characteristics. In this context, monetary policy can be a potential driver of gender wealth inequality, since women are known to be more risk averse, less financially literate, and to participate less in the financial markets ...

Housing Market Regulation Has Contributed to the Worldwide Triumph of Home Ownership

The present report presents new historical data based on country comparisons and research results regarding rent control and its long-term effect on the home ownership rate in 27 countries. Policy measures of rent control, protection against eviction, and housing space management have been widespread in most of the countries studied—particularly in continental Europe—in the past 100 years. At the same ...